Tuesday November 16th

4 Industrials

Partly did my daily updating with a new site I found which gives me my prices in form of a nice list. I guess when orderly organized I can cut the time it takes in half.

Missed a Catapult in INTU. Pretty unfortunate, but unclear if the bottom was valid and too little time to organize the trade and generally too distracted today.

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Trader Vic finished economy part. Very difficult to grasp the message, but appears to make sense if understood correctly.

Wednesday November 17th

2 Industrials.
Organized everything a bit better and tried to subcategorize the Tech- and Industrial- sector, but it is very difficult to come up with reasonable "real-life" groups.
At least I've organized them in a way, so that I update them always in the same order every day, which I think should give me a better feel over time.

Trader Vic about how he sees risk. Part 1 of 2 almost finished. Part 2 will be more about the psychological side.

In the Morgan biography, one thing stood out. In one of his art-collections, there is a tapestry with King Midas, who wished that everything he touches would turn to gold, then he found that he could neither eat nor drink and retracted the wish!

Thursday November 18th

2 Industrials
and sub-categorized the Tech-sector. Took the official sub-categories, because otherwise it's just too complicated.

Trader Vic talks about prerequisites for success, ways of becoming aware of you emotions and limiting beliefs. He referred again to Ayn Rand and also Nathaniel Branden, whose books I read about half a year before I discovered the market. Interesting how one thing leads to the next, this leads to the next and so on.

Friday November 19th

Just updated today, no charts drawn.
The INTU Catapult actually had a solid gap-up today. The problem is that my very exact rules aren't defined yet and I was too much out of balance this week to decide on whether to trade it or not.
I'll do an RS-chart for this on the weekend, take a closer look at it, and decide in hindsight if I put it in the books for tracking purposes.

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Finished Trader Vic. Second more psychological part was very interesting. "The idealized self-image", "The search for glory", "False pride". A good reminder about what is really important, which tends to get lost oftentimes somewhere along the way.

Then started to re-read Livermores "How to trade in Stocks", for the third time actually. Main focus this time is on his thoughts of stock-group-behaviour. He says that it's better to confine one's studies better to comparatively few stocks and he keeps records for about 4 individual groups.
So it is possible that I overload myself currently with trying to keep track of all 500 S&P stocks, but I let that thought sink more in. For now I think it's better to get a widespread overlook and probably it will solve itself as I move on.
I think this is meant for the real parabolic spike type of trades, but he says: "There are only a few times a year, possibly four or five, when you should allow yourself to make any commitment at all."

Sunday November 21st

Mostly categories organizing.

The missed INTU Catapult:

INTU









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Current positions development


PVH


This one acts more weak, Occasionally eying on it intraday it appears to be not very convincing. If I were trading "freely" I could decide to close the postition, but for testing purposes I wait what happens.
Since it's not really in a trend and breaking out from a very broad area, it also could be that it just takes its time.



APH


This behaves perfectly. Intraday it seems strong most of the time in comparison to the ES and even the RS-chart went a box up last week.
For now everything appears to be as it should.

Monday November 22nd

10 Industrials and finished new organization structure for now.

Livermore talks about overall market - industry group - sister stock activity. First two things I already consider, sister-stock activity is a thing I could also have an eye on.
Morgan biographie about how he handled the 1907 panic and Livermore actually mentions how he shorted the panic and Morgan asked him to discontinue his shorting.
He also puts significant weight on volume, which I'll continue ignoring for now.

Tuesday November 23rd

6 Industrials

Finished "How to trade in stocks". The edition with commentary by Richard Smitten. Smitten has also written a biography of Livermore, which I very much liked, but he does squeezs a lot out of Livermore's name.
One of the reasons for the book was likely to also be an advertisement for his "Trade like Jesse Livermore" computer system, and literally a few pages after the section called "Beware of stock tips", he goes into detail with his system. But that's how this industry works and I wonder if he was even aware of this contradiction.

Started DeVilliers & Taylor on Point & Figure Charting.
That's basically the comprehensive work on P&F from them, other than the little "The point and Figure method" book.
Their method is a bit different to how I handle it currently. They use 1 point reversal charts and I think they don't work with the static patterns, but more with the "natural movements created by supply and demand", which they designate as the lever, the fulcrum and the catapult.
They state that James R. Keene was also a P&F user in his operations. I can't tell if that's true, but it gives me additional conviction nevertheless.

Wednesday November 24th

6 Industrials

I like DeVillier's and Owen's approach as well. The main focus is on the one-point-reversal chart, but they do also use three and five points for the broader picture.
I think of supplementing some of the leading stocks (as soon as I have figured out which they are) with also drawing one point charts. They recommend observing 50-100 stocks this way, but since this method requires intraday data it starts slowly to get a bit overloading if I aim for that.
The interesting thing though is, that what they consider "the catapult" appears to be a bit similar to for what I was looking for with my "Prom-Queens". But two key differences are, the timeframe / range of the movements and that it grounds on the basis of only full-figure movements. I think I do have underestimated the significance of full figures a bit in my way of thinking about the market.

Thursday November 25th

Finished the Industrial sector.

Finished the first of two parts in the P&F book.
Interestingly they analyzed the last runup and crash of 1929 with their technique in the book.
What I also like is, that they speak in terms of "campaigns" and "they are accumulating" etc. , like most of the old dogs.
It does help me in my thinking that there (possibly) are the big boys playing their game with the public.
It reminds me of a story I once heard of a store owner who paid people to stand in line in front of his store to attract more customers.

Friday November 26th

Constructed some P&F charts ala DeVilliers & Taylor.
They don't look quite the way as their examples in the book. The problem is, that with the 1 point fluctuations, there seem to be much more consolidation-lines, which pulls the chart basically more lengthy, which gives an (at least until now) unfamiliar picture. It's also possible that the test-stocks I've chosen were more inclined to be that way and others move more sharply.


CDAY

I chose this as a average moving-speed example.
The decline which seems here pretty average is actually the Covid-crash from March 2020


That's the following upmove and after that when price-action returned to be more normal again, I got not very directional looking charts.


Coke

As a slow-moving example I've chosen Coke. The decline again is the Covid-crash and the rest is from the subsequent low, until today.
From the very low until the highest high, we had a 50% increase, but just looking at it, it seems very difficult to find a reasonable entry.


What I though like is, that in writing out every 5 and 0, it gives me again more sense for the significance for the actual price-numbers, which I've neglected entirely all the time.