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If you are asking yourself if title is clickbait - yes it is. I want to get many different opinions to ideas and models I'm about to share.
This is not and advertisement and tools shown are not commercially available.
This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present.
Short story - been trading for about 5 years, lot of ups and downs, certainly more downs than ups.
Blown few accounts as usual, decided to stop gambling and proceed to build hundreds of systems and indicators. In the beginning, nothing worked, but through lot of work and time, today I can differentiate what works and what doesn't really quickly.
I have built a system, strategy, model or however you want to call it that I believe it is a real holy grail. I call it holy grail from mechanical/edge trading point of view. Holy grail for me is combination of edge/system, psychological fortitude and discipline which was hardest to obtain for me.
Why this model is un - grazed potential for edges.
- It is based on physics, market is processed using lot of data to find stable inefficiencies
- Works on every market, every time frame
- Robust, you can apply it to any market in any year in time. It will show you same results in
1950's and today.
- Possible adaptive features, most of the time it is not necessary, but it can provide additional
value in certain periods
I'm sharing with you picture of one out of three components applied to DJI30.
This is trend component, usually I use it to estimate trend, and trade in direction it is showing.
As you can see, it displays the market movement with near perfection(it is not always perfect, it can fail for short periods of time). Every trade taken would've been extremely profitable.
I wonder if you find this interesting and if it can bring any value to you.
Please give me your questions, doubts, comments. I'm eager to any productive discussion.
Thanks
Nick
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Sorry, i can't see anything valuable so far. If you mention trades, you have to add the entry- and exit rules we should apply to that study. Then everybody can see what you see.
If I watch your chart, I cannot see anything you call "holy grail", special in the middle of the chart I see a divergence which would kill your account. I would say with any indicator/oscillator you will see a similar picture.
Since you ask for comments, you have said that this oscillator is one of three components of your system, which is good because it is not remarkable in itself at all. Sorry.
You've got a nice smooth oscillator that tracks the short-term movements, with a bit of a lag, and abstracts them out from the overall trend. There are a lot of these out there. If all you do is trade this oscillator's ups and downs, you will have some significant losses when the larger trend goes against you. This is the usual issue with oscillators, and this one is not unusual in this respect.
As has been pointed out, there is no system without entries and exits, and I would add loss control. You might have a worthwhile indicator or set of indicators, but that doesn't make a holy grail.
Sorry to be sort of strong in my comments, but when you offer something as a solution to everyone's trading problems by calling it a "holy grail," you invite close scrutiny.
As to discussions, if this is all you say it is, then you can get a terrific discussion going by opening a trading journal and entering real trades using it, tracking your performance and giving people something to see besides a static chart with indicators on it. A holy grail would obviously make you serious money quickly, and that would satisfy any doubters also.
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One more thing, and I hate to bring this up but you also do raise the question by your terminology, whether intentionally or not. You have said that this is not a commercial product and you are not selling anything. You have also used a provocative thread title and have said "This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present."
You should understand that there is no faster way to be banned than to be offering a product for sale here. I am taking you at your word that you are not, but I wanted to raise the point, just in case.
So by all means continue with your discussion, and if you want to show what your tools can do, open a trade journal and show some real-time trades, or present it in whatever other way you prefer, but just keep this in mind.
We have seen many "holy grails," after all.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
I agree with your points, this is why this oscillator with certain frequency is used to estimate and predict future trends.
But comparing this tool with lot of others out there is just bonkers, please show me single oscillator that tracks market with this precision and amount of lag. Maybe calling it holy grail is a bit too much(it really depends what is your definition of holy grail), but it is the among best out there and it certainly puts it in HG category, per my point of view.
I have attached chart of the same timespan for DJI30 with all trades taken.
Second component of the system is the same oscillator but it is fully adaptable with every new bar. This component is more suitable for entries, because the drawdown will be significantly smaller if price goes the other way.
Rules for entries and exits are very simple:
1. Buys are sells are executed when a smaller components crosses in directions of trend component.
2. Trades can be also taken when a smaller component crosses 0 line.
This trades produced ~2700 points with 16 W and 2 L.
trades
trades2
trades3
trades4
It is discretionary mechanical system. My ideas is to show with how seemingly simple oscillator and few rules, extremely profitable trades can be taken. Please note, that creating and mining the data for this filter is complex.
--------------------
My idea for this thread is to make community case study.
I'm glad you wrote "We have seen many "holy grails," after all.".
Everyday we are all getting pitched by superior and profitable trading systems, indicators, market profile, methods, etc. But in reality nothing works and it doesn't give you any kind of edge.
It would make me happy to change that if it is possible. If people here can see more value in something I can offer, than any other commercial or free stuff available, why wouldn't make it commercial?
When I read claims of its "better than" or more "valuable than other". It will require you to post a very a detailed backtest and a very real live trade record of at least couple of quarters. (Some will require years, but I'm nice)
Also, I think most of us have seen similar kind of threads before and have a very fair idea of where this will go, so lets hope for surprise.
The only way to differentiate what works and what doesn't is with effective testing and recording of trades. Something that if done right isn't exactly quick. So why doesn't he post any back tested results or live results? Someone that is as knowledgeable as this poster claims would certainly know that the starting point for proving such a claim would be showing the strategy's performance. Yet he doesn't provide any such thing.
I can only conclude that this poster doesn't know as much as they think they do.
I would be very happy to think that you had a system that would reliably produce the kind of results you suggest.
I counted 16 days worth of trading in the charts you showed, and you say it produced 2700 points in that time. One point of YM (Dow futures) is worth $5 per contract. So in that 16 trading day span, it produced 2700 x $5 = $13,500 before commissions, trading one contract. That's roughly $27,000 per month, for one contract, less a small amount for commissions, but negligible since it didn't do many trades. That's $324,000 per year, trading only one contract. For a modest trading size of 5 contracts per trade, it's $1,620,000 in one year. A person could keep multiplying -- why not 10 contracts? -- but the point is obvious. Anyone who could make these kinds of returns would be wealthy
This is not a real money system that you actually trade. It may be something you expect will do well if and when you ever trade it, or it could be just something you have to sell. It could be a hobby system, something you worked out trying different ideas. It could be something that happened to work on paper for this timespan. It could be many things, but not something that is making you money now, reliably, in real markets. Because if it were, you would not be posting about it on an online forum. You would be enjoying the life of the very successfully rich.
You say that "My idea for this thread is to make community case study." If you simply are going to post charts with your presumed results and talk about them, there is no "case study" going on, there is simply you promoting a secret system. You say that "If people here can see more value in something I can offer, than any other commercial or free stuff available, why wouldn't make it commercial?" But this forum is not available to you for the purpose of convincing the members that they should want to purchase a commercial system that you have shown them.
You are not required to disclose the details of any trading system that you want to keep proprietary. You may utilize this forum to communicate or discuss trading or trading ideas and you may show the results of actual or simulated trading or backtesting, or anything else you want to share about your system.
But if, in the judgment of the moderation team, you are using the forum to promote a commercial endeavor where you are looking for potential customers, you will not be allowed to continue.
Consider this seriously as you go forward.
If you have any questions, feel free to ask them.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote