chipwitch 

You quoted it but missed the point: "Whether they are smarter than you or not is irrelevant. We are all able to learn something from others, even if it is the shill on youtube." It's about humility and respect for others. That isn't mutually exclusive to teaching... or learning. How successful has math made you with trading? Was it you or someone else who posted that Isaac Newton lost millions in the market? It seems to me that you see mathematics as the single, exclusive necessity to trading. It isn't. It helps you. I get that. It helps me too. But for some, just doing, experiencing and practicing will do the same thing. I know people like that. You don't need to be a physicist to know how to strike a baseball flying at 100 mph, with a skinny round stick and propel it in your desired direction 400 feet. I'd even argue that knowing how to calculate the mechanics would actually serve as an impediment. It serves no one, including yourself, to get frustrated because your expectations of others isn't met.

Yes, without an understanding of the data science you are extremely unlikely to have success in modern markets. Not without some sort of other informational edge. Markets are very statistically efficient, but informationally inefficient. This means that a technical edge gets arbitraged out of the market quickly, and prices can move far away from fundamental value. Any edge that you might have been able to find by simple experience and practice has already been arbitraged out of the market. A blind mouse may find a crumb every once and a while, but the floor is awfully clean these days.

We might think we see patterns, but it is almost always a case of just not being able to see and understand the full distribution of results that arise from the setup. Since most people don't understand the statistical consequences of fat tails they almost always gravitate towards fatally flawed strategies. They don't realize those crumbs are part of a mouse trap. The proven math behind markets suggests that this isn't something you can just figure out by looking at it.

I've backtested and tried out just about every popular type of technical trading system there is out there. Save yourself some time. Instead of trusting what someone else on the internet has said, look for empirical research. Data that you can look at and verify for yourself. Where you can see five or more years of data, and verify that's actually a thing. Anything less is a waste of your time.

bobwest 

@goodoboy, I agree with @vmodus. I got the joke and I thought it was funny, and you are making a good point in your last sentence. Your follow-up posts are funny too. Some may not have gotten it though. Those who know you know that you are kidding... I just wanted to say that, for anyone who took it seriously. Sometimes we may not see how others take the things we say. Bob.

Hello Bob,

I am glad I can make you laugh.

I just wanted to bring some laughs.

But I also wanted to see how it feels to lie about trading results just to sell a trading course and BS people in the trading industry. wow, it does feel pretty sleezy. Sorry but I can not do it man. Trading is too darn hard to get and stay profitable to want to teach others. Once I get to my millionaire status scalping my 50 ES contracts, for certain I would not be teaching.

And here is the thing. I have experience in internet marketing and I know high level internet marketers that could take my made up trading course and sell it like crazy. But i want sleep at night. I can not do it.

I certainly **advise (probably only worth gum on the ground) new traders to just stare the bars on the chart everyday and do the best you can taking a good guess for a at good risk per guess. NOONE , EVER in this life time is going to show you or even let you watch them in real time trade XX ES contracts day to day. They not going to prove to you from the first place.

**I am not a consistent profitable day trader. I have only had 1 month of consistent profits for the first month of March 2022. And I can tell you, there is no way in hell I would waste time teaching someone what I know , after all this work.

Maybe someone can help me out.

Why would I waste time teaching someone how to trade, when I can trade +50 ES contracts per day, and make about $1M per year trading living on 20 acres of land paid in cash, nice paid off cars, no debt, and a house for my mom down the street?

TWDsje 

I've backtested and tried out just about every popular type of technical trading system there is out there. Save yourself some time. Instead of trusting what someone else on the internet has said, look for empirical research. Data that you can look at and verify for yourself. Where you can see five or more years of data, and verify that's actually a thing. Anything less is a waste of your time.

You just don't stop! You assume that I don't do research? Where do you divine this info? I trust NO one and that includes YOU. I'm beginning to think you just project onto other your own mistakes. Further, I will be the decider of what is or is not a waste of my time. If I feel like wasting my time backtesting technical trading systems (and I do), I will do it just as you have and NOT take your word for it. The difference is that I won't be telling beginners that it's a waste of their time. Everybody learns in their own way. Yours is not the only way to learn. I respect that it may work for you but I will thank you to stop trying to impose your proven method of "success" on me. You cannot seem to separate facts from your opinion. That doesn't seem to me to be a desirable quality for trading.

chipwitch 

You just don't stop! You assume that I don't do research? Where do you divine this info? I trust NO one and that includes YOU. I'm beginning to think you just project onto other your own mistakes. Further, I will be the decider of what is or is not a waste of my time. If I feel like wasting my time backtesting technical trading systems (and I do), I will do it just as you have and NOT take your word for it. The difference is that I won't be telling beginners that it's a waste of their time. Everybody learns in their own way. Yours is not the only way to learn. I respect that it may work for you but I will thank you to stop trying to impose your proven method of "success" on me. You cannot seem to separate facts from your opinion. That doesn't seem to me to be a desirable quality for trading.

I'm not sharing opinions. I'm summarizing our best understanding from the latest empirical research. I find it a little silly that I have to argue with people about the effectiveness of empirical research, but here we are. And yes, I am assuming that you don't do your own research. Otherwise you would have understood or at least searched the terms I'm using and started a discussion on those specific topics that actually leads somewhere. But it's pretty hard to take you any further if we have to argue about empiricism.

TWDsje 

And yes, I am assuming that you don't do your own research. Otherwise you would have understood or at least searched the terms I'm using and started a discussion on those specific topics that actually leads somewhere.

And this says it all. You admit to assuming... and then basing it on whether or not you perceive that I understand something or searched for terms you've "dropped." My motivation for not discussing YOUR preferred topic is that you have yet to address my preferred topic which in my mind, is a fundamental part of humanity, humility and respect. If we can't agree on that, nothing else you have to say matters to me.

Quoting 

But it's pretty hard to take you any further if we have to argue about empiricism.

We haven't argued about empiricism. You made a claim that the average person doesn't know that "live trading" can be faked. I specifically asked you for evidence (that's me looking for empiricism!). You provided none and chose to create a straw man argument. That to me is intellectually dishonest. Nothing more you say, in my mind, has any credibility at that point.

TWDsje 

But it's pretty hard to take you any further if we have to argue about empiricism.

chipwitch 

Nothing more you say, in my mind, has any credibility at that point.

Moderator Notice OK, calm down both of you. We don't have this forum for back-and-forth arguments like this. You are both intelligent and fully grown. So it is embarrassing to have to tell you to stop, but I will. Civility and mutual respect are not optional on the forum, they are required. If you disagree with someone, that is completely OK. By all means be passionate in your disagreement if that is how you feel. But do not make it personal and do not forget normal professionalism and courtesy. You both have your views and you care about them. Fine. Do not take it to a personal level, and if you can't agree, then let it die down and move on. Bob.

chipwitch 

We haven't argued about empiricism. You made a claim that the average person doesn't know that "live trading" can be faked. I specifically asked you for evidence (that's me looking for empiricism!). You provided none and chose to create a straw man argument. That to me is intellectually dishonest. Nothing more you say, in my mind, has any credibility at that point.

I feel that I've already adequately covered this. It's advanced statistics. Most people do not have masters degrees in math, and natural human intuition is terrible at seeing these things. We could write an exam to test traders on their understanding of these concepts for a peer reviewed study, but I don't really think that's necessary as it's already a well known problem. Otherwise Taleb wouldn't have written his books, and we wouldn't have to explain every few pages how you can fake successful trading in the short term by taking on excessive risk.

TWDsje 

I feel that I've already adequately covered this. It's advanced statistics. Most people do not have masters degrees in math, and natural human intuition is terrible at seeing these things. We could write an exam to test traders on their understanding of these concepts for a peer reviewed study, but I don't really think that's necessary as it's already a well known problem. Otherwise Taleb wouldn't have written his books, and we wouldn't have to explain every few pages how you can fake successful trading in the short term by taking on excessive risk.

Seth, no more.

If you did not read my post, read it now.

You made your point. At another time it could be interesting to discuss. But not in this context. Let it go, please.

Bob.

bobwest 

Seth, no more. If you did not read my post, read it now. You made your point. At another time it could be interesting to discuss. But not in this context. Let it go, please. Bob.

Come on, you only beat me by a minute anyways

TWDsje 

Come on, you only beat me by a minute anyways

True enough.

Bob.