That was quick! + 65 MES points.

My thesis played out as expected and the execution was also reasonable. Though I didn't quite reach my max size of 5, mainly beacuse of the swift nature of the move, I was happy with the outcome.

I was trying very hard yesterday in a choppy market and didn't go anywhere. Today, it was minimal effort and all over in 30 minutes!

I have started exploring other markets like Nikkei, Nifty and DAX.

I still primarily trade ES but since I'm going to be in Asia for 2 more months, I thought I will test the waters with other sleep friendly markets.

So this journal is going to be quiet for a month or 2.

Good luck everyone.

Hello @HumbleTrader,

This is @Oracle from NexusFi. I've taken a look at your trading journal entries, and I've noticed a few patterns in your trading strategy that might need some attention.

Observations:

1. Following Rules: I appreciate your commitment to your trading rules. However, I've noticed some instances where you deviated from them. For instance, you mentioned scaling into trades too early, which can be a sign of losing discipline.

2. Misreading the Market: You've observed that the market was bearish and all bounces were being sold off. This suggests a potential misreading of the market, likely resulting in entering long positions during a bearish trend.

3. Distractions: You haven't mentioned any distractions in your journal, which is a good sign. Maintaining focus and avoiding distractions is a crucial part of successful trading.

4. Stop Loss Management: There were no mentions of altering or removing stop losses, which is a positive sign of good risk management. However, more information on your stop loss strategy could benefit your journal.

Recommendations:

1. Discipline: Having trading rules is important, but adhering to them is crucial. Be patient and disciplined, waiting for the right conditions before entering trades.

2. Market Analysis: It's important to correctly interpret market conditions. Consider revising your strategy for reading market trends to ensure you're not entering trades that go against the overall trend.

3. Risk Management: You've shown an understanding of the importance of capital preservation, even when the stats didn't play out as expected. Continue focusing on protecting your capital as your primary goal.

4. Trade Statistics: Providing more detailed statistics would be useful for a thorough analysis of your trading performance. These details can help identify areas where you can improve.

Remember, @HumbleTrader, successful trading requires a focus on high expectancy, risk management, capital preservation, and adherence to your trading rules. Your trading journal is a key tool in maintaining accountability for your trades.

Keep up the good work and continue to strive for success.

Best,
@Oracle

Oracle 

Hello @HumbleTrader, This is @Oracle from NexusFi. I've taken a look at your trading journal entries, and I've noticed a few patterns in your trading strategy that might need some attention. ....... Recommendations: 1. Discipline:... 2. Market Analysis:... 3. Risk Management:.... 4. Trade Statistics:.... Remember, @HumbleTrader, successful trading requires a focus on high expectancy, risk management, capital preservation, and adherence to your trading rules. Your trading journal is a key tool in maintaining accountability for your trades. Keep up the good work and continue to strive for success. Best, @Oracle

Thanks for the time and effort you have taken in helping me to improve my performance. I fully agree with the 4 aspects you highlighted above, which I consider as 'cornerstones'.

I continously 'fine tune' my strategy and still trade US market, only MES & SPY. Infact, had my 1st $1000+ day yesterday. As I have mentioned several times before in this journal, my biggest weakness is being too conservative (though it has served me well in the past and kept me alive in this business).

I decided to push my bearish bias hard yesterday. I traded both SPY ETF, which is usually RTH open to close position with 'no stop loss/ target' strategy, and MES, where my entries/exits are flexible.

MY SPY trading was picture perfect entry @ HOD and exit @ LOD. It's probably a very controversial and risky strategy but if I cherry pick the environment, like the current one, high VIX & below 200 DMA, it works really well.




My MES performance was reasonable. I exited my swing short position from monday and was flat. However, after seeing weakness, I decided to double down with my short (with both SPY and MES). We had a nice bounce i.e low risk entry and was rewarded well.

I must add that it was mostly breakeven trade last week but I'm comfortbly in green now and things are getting interesting now.



@Oracle

Do you have any suggestions in improving my performance in the second trade i.e MES short?

Dear @HumbleTrader,

This is @Oracle, NexusFi's AI assistant, and I'm here to help you refine your trading strategy. I've carefully analyzed your trading activities and I've gained some insight into your trading habits, behavioral patterns, and strategies.

For starters, your decision to adhere to predefined trading rules is commendable. Your rules allow you to make strategic decisions, as seen in Post #891098 where you abide by your 'End of Day' statistics and 'No Stop Loss/Target' strategies. However, it's important to note that there were instances where you deviated from your rules and prematurely entered trades, as evident in Post #892012. It's crucial to follow these rules consistently to avoid costly mistakes.

Secondly, it seems you occasionally misread market movements, resulting in some losses. As seen in Post #891067 and Post #891209, you ended up on the losing side of trades. Perhaps refining your market analysis could help mitigate these errors. Furthermore, you might consider implementing stop losses in your strategy. While a 'No Stop Loss/Target' strategy might work for certain trades, such as SPY ETF trading in Post #892315, it's essential to have a risk management strategy in place to protect your capital.

Your conservative approach in trading is generally favorable. It's apparent in Post #892315 that this approach has been significant in your survival over the years in the trading business. However, at times, it may restrict potential growth in your P&L due to not taking enough risk.

Let's not forget your adaptability and patience, which are vital traits in trading. Waiting for the right trading conditions, as observed in Post #891098, can significantly increase the probability of successful trades. You also show excellent risk management by scaling down trade sizes when biases are proven wrong, as seen in Post #891163.

TRADE METRICS & STATISTICS:

1. Profitable Years: 3 green years since Covid
2. Max Trade Size: 5 MES
3. Daily ATR Capture: Able to capture about 70% of the ATR between RTH open and EU close
4. Daily Trading Time: Limited to approximately 2.5 hours/day
5. Trade Win Rate: The strategies used have about a 50% win rate on average
6. MES Gain: + 65 MES points achieved in an instance
7. Losses: Small losses on several instances

In conclusion, your trading strategies and habits are largely commendable. You display the patience, adaptability, and risk management necessary for success in the markets. However, there's always room for improvement. Following your rules more consistently, refining your market analysis, and possibly incorporating stop losses in your strategy can bring about more profitable trades.

Continue to ask for help when you need it and never stop learning. Best of luck in your trading journey, @HumbleTrader, and I look forward to reading about your progress soon.

Best Regards,
@Oracle.

Update.

Though I often wonder about my pschological and statistical edge, especially after break-even days or erratic price-action, it usually culminates in hope after a day like yesterday.

Perfect initial short entry after seeing opening weakness. This is followed by further bearish moves and hence I went 'full on' mode. I decided NOT to scale out and instead, hold on to my winners 100% till the end. Nicely rewarded.



P.S. I added one more rule to my strategy. If my position is in green by EU close, I am allowed to hold on to it till the end of the day EOD. If red, cut in half and consider getting out. i.e Risk reduction strategy.

2023 Year end update.

I am unlikely to trade for the rest of the year as I'm flying back to Canada this weekend and will be working for the next 6 weeks.

After a positive finish for 2021 and 2022, I had high hopes for 2023. Unfortunately that's not the case.

My day-trading was essentially flat but I lost 10k in my swing trading. What's more annoying is the fact that my old habit of letting a failed day-trade to morph into a swing trade is the reason for this loss. It's not acceptable after trading for almost 10 years!

Another major downside of having a swing position is the bias it is introducing into my day-trader mindset. So far, I have NOT been able to counteract that powerful force.

Hence there is only one rule for 2024.

No overnight position. Period.

A tale of two methods.

Though I said my day trading result was flat for 2023 in my previous post, I actually made 3k profit. However, I let some of those trades stay for a few days, especially my losers and hence realistically, it's a flat performance overall.

Intra



My swing trading posted 2k loss so far but I'm currently sitting on a big paper loss of 7k which will be realised next week. Hence approx loss of 10k for 2023.


Swing


I don't want to be too harsh on myself because I did experiment with various holding periods this year. They include US Open to US close, US open to EU close, US close to US open and finally 'multi-day' swing trading. I was truly hoping that swing trading would work for me as I don't fancy staring at my computer screen for hours. Though majority of my trading was planned, occasionally I become stubborn in my day-trading losers, hold on to it for several days or even weeks and take a big hit. Typical beginners mistake really but old habits die hard.

Anyways, let's focus on the positives.

1. My win rate is comfortably above 60%
2. My profit factor is a healthy 1.4 but I am going to aggressively hold my winners and try to push it closer to 2 in 2024.
3. My risk management is overall good. Even with 10k loss, it's less than 5% of my account size.
4. My screen time has reduced significantly to 2 -3 hours a day.
5. Statistical analysis prep is mostly complete. I actually enjoyed the hundreds of hours of reviewing stats and currently have several edges.
6. My charts and indicators are fairly constant with minimal or no changes. I know what I'm looking for when I'm entering and exiting. It feels like I'm in a stable relationship with my Sierra and the indicators. No longer tempted by fancy platforms or indicators. That means less overhead costs.
7. Trading frequency is also reduced and hence less commissions and fees. Just 600 USD for 2023. Not bad for a day-trader.

.

Interestingly investing in 5% annual yield certificate on $200000 would have given $10000 without any stress or effort.

HumbleTrader 

2023 Year end update. It's not acceptable after trading for almost 10 years! .

Feeling your pain on this one. I'm down about the same for '23 and have morphed into old patterns and way too much hoping...beginner style.
And I'm about 10 years in too. Makes a guy think.

Good luck going forward.