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NexusFi Journal Challenge - April 2024 Hi guys, Continuing our long tradition of encouraging members to have Trade Journals, we are announcing our newest Journal Challenge, sponsored by Ninja Mobile Trader VPS! Prizes -- the top five trading journals will receive prizes: …

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Mike

Still here.
Still trading.

Just 1 trade. SPY 100.
Entry is discretionary based on EMA crossing - Usually @ RTH open.
Exit - EMA exit signal but usually hold till End of Day.
All in and all out. Keeping it simple again.

This is due to the fact that my day job doesn't allow me to monitor my position. I'm using this data to assess my edge with the added bonus of improvement in my discipline.

My daily bias is based on historical stats.

6 factors into consideration. Price, Trend, Strength, Season, Volatility and Overnight action.

Bearish bias executed without fuss today.

Stats were neutral and mixed today.

However, I didn't want to stand aside and chose to go LONG. I was well awre that I was bottom fishing which is generally not a good idea.

My counter-trend trade long has one simple rule. If a new low is made after my entry, I'm out.

I applied that rule today and became flat quickly. Though price moved in my favor eventually, I have no regrets as the odds of trend continuation is always higher than reversal.


.

I am grateful for breakeven trades. Sometimes.




P.S. My bad habit of scaling in to losing trades crept in today. Stats were strongly bearish today which made me more confident. Won't happen again.

Did I say, I like End Of Day EOD orders?



Can't get any better than this

My old habit of letting an intra-day position to a swing trade is back. However, I'm not too pissed off with myself as it was intentional. My regular job included some day AND night shifts over the last few days. This meant very erratic screen time and hence I decided to let my position to run it's course.

Despite a big MAE, it's a profitable trade as I had a clear stop above Friday's high and clear target of swing low. Target met today.




Screenshot 2024-04-10 at 9.08.08 PM

My favorite trading environment is here.

During weak bullish environment, i.e above 200 DMA but below 10 DMA, my bearish bias and EOD execution has a much better success rate.

For instance, the odds of ES closing lower intraday is >60% compared to <35% in a strong bullish environment. This is from a very respectable sample of 4000 days!

The odds of price closing in the extreme is also much higher. This rewards my style of holding my position till the end of the day.

Let's see.

Quick follow up from my previos post about market conditions and the expected price moves.

Graph 1 shows the price movement during strong bullish market condition. Compare this to the second graph of a weak bullish market and it's pretty obvious that big moves i.e >1% are lot more likely. This means more volatility and hence smaller posistion size.

1. Strong Bullish market



2. Weak Bullish market

Starts with a bang and ends in a whimper.

More musings about this 'weak bullish condition' (I simply call it as 'FALL' season).

Monday often starts bullish and here is the stat.



Come friday, we get this.




Naturally I'm short today and NOT taking this into weekend.

Well executed trade today.

Bearish bias explained in my post above. Got in at the right location and scaled out 1/2 at daily ATR and the rest @ EOD.

Grabbing 80% of daily range is no easy task and quite proud of that.