Cools81 

The problem with pullbacks is: How deep do they go? - 50%+ DISCOUNT of floor OR ceiling @ SR Pivot, Distribution POC, Strike and theres more levels to consider. these are main ones though. How do you know when the PB is actually a trend reversal? - correct time, PB showing accumulation / exhaustion via pins/psrs, dv, AND if there is a weak liquidity target ahead BUT in saying that you DONT know and never will. I wish someone had told me this 10 years ago - Trading is not about being right or wrong. Its about getting discounts and squeezing liquidity into profits. If youre always taking discounts you can be wrong 70% and be ok. obviously you want to be right 70-80% then you are multi millionaire by sinply taking discounts. They often take my trend following system out of a big winner because they cause my trailing stop to be triggered long before the move is over - keep your risk as a strong holder DO NOT place within the auction/distribution/levels - accumulation zones. Stay behind full auctions.

You're saying a lot of interesting things here. And I'm always looking to learn more information. What is this auction theory you're referring too?

When you say 'trading is about squeezing liquidity into profits' are you saying we are trying to enter in the market in places where liquidity is either abnormally thing (ex: buyers run out in an uptrend) or places where liquidity is abnormally large (ex: seller runout in a downtrend leaving a large liquid body of buyers)?

Thanks for keeping the conversation going. Are you also an ES trader?

lrud1314 

You're saying a lot of interesting things here. And I'm always looking to learn more information. What is this auction theory you're referring too? When you say 'trading is about squeezing liquidity into profits' are you saying we are trying to enter in the market in places where liquidity is either abnormally thing (ex: buyers run out in an uptrend) or places where liquidity is abnormally large (ex: seller runout in a downtrend leaving a large liquid body of buyers)? Thanks for keeping the conversation going. Are you also an ES trader?

Yes I trade ES futures.
2 hours before USA close (because im in australia, otherwise id do USA open first two hours into london close.)

anyway, all I mean by liquidity is pivots.
The question is whether the pivot is strong demand / supply / finished business (risk) OR is it weak liquidity to squeeze (target)?

Pivots show imbalance which is essentially all you need. The ninja volume delta stuff - imo is the new tool designed to confuse the retailer. Large volume can mean demand / supply / profit taking / accumulation ... so?? For me watching volume/delta meant I missed the obvious trades. Imbalance in low volume important too. Again, which Pivots will show you anyway.
Just my opinion of experience but I would tell everyone to throw that stuff away. Nice to look back in hindsight but in real time - you only have 1 brain - focus on the discount / targets.
You have a discount - whether its absorbed or exhausted what does it matter? you have a discount with a weak liquidity target and you see pins/compressions/imbalance at said discount (all visible on price chart without V/D) - great get in.

Here is a couple of stock standard examples. This is all trading is. The bullshit indicators over complicate it / distract you. However, as simple as the process is IT IS NOT EASY. Seeing Volatility, the floor/ceiling/targets (can look 1000 different ways) timing, basically to see the accumulation/risk/entry discount and target in real time takes experience of course and theres always more to realize like distribution projections, option strikes, profit taking process, lvn squeezes not just liquidity etc. BUT if you stick to the simple rules of strong liquidity v weak liquidity, get discounts whilst not losing your mind over a loss?? youll be alright. very all right!

Hope that helps and not complicate things further LOL. It's a frustrating game to learn and master. A puzzle you know if you can just piece together youll have insane life. Ive gone through years of highs lows learnings - Ive known the rules for 8 years BUT knowing and doing - 2 different things. Once you realize there are 8-16 opportunities (more if youre faster) of great R:R projections every single day (non holiday, non rollover) THEN the psychology / professionalism comes.

Do you use a trailing stop? Do you have specific stats for your runner?
I ask this because your MFE/MAE ratio is close to 1.0, and the avg holding time for Winners is less than Losers, could be that your target is too high or your trailing stop is too late, or your runner is just not running. Do all your losing trades lose with a full stop, or some fraction of R?

Do you use some kind of orderflow tool for precise entries and trade management? (cumulative delta, price ladder, footprint?) Most scalpers I know use one or more of these tools, but I'm not familiar with your methodology.