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Thanks for clearing that up, Boss. I thought you were referring to the simple news items.... I love flexing margin when things are right. I am no professional gambler though, but I know I can make a 30% return in an hour with little risk when those opportunites do arise. So I think we may be on the same thought process. Maybe it was just a nomenclature issue.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yes, you should have started a few months earlier... There were some "unbelievable" opportunities during that crash, it really cemented my position as a trader.
But there is still a lot to come, I think oil will be particularly interesting over the next years...
Keep in mind that English is my second language... I think we are on the same page.
ZIP it. What I meant was I know it's a MultiCharts performance report exported to Excel, but the question was is it just a backtest, or did he take the trades cash. Based on the post I am quite certain not all the trades (1-year) were taken cash, so I am not sure that the post proves anything.
I agree, partially. Unless you've put skin in the game, then a performance report and equity curve don't hold much water.
Then again, chances are, if you can produce a nice smooth equity curve in backtest and it's not fundamentally flawed, it shows that you can probably make at least SOME money trading it forward.
I've seen some backtests that were truly divine, only to discover that they were fundamentally flawed.
A perfect example is backtesting using a trailing stop, but without looking intrabar. The backtest automatically assumes the best case scenario (i.e. that the bar went OHLC perfectly smoothly and didn't do any traveling in between). Then you backtest to discover, your perfect backtest is garbage when you look under the microscope.
That's exactly why I posted that file, because it's fairly easy to generate a divine looking strategy.
Not sure if this is relevant to the original thread topic, but I'll try to tie it in.
The above posts got me thinking. So I tested it out.
Create this strategy: "Divine Strategy Presentation."
If C > O then buy next bar at market;
If C < O then sell next bar at market;
setstopcontract;
setdollartrailing(1);
Now use the strategy on the instrument of your choice (I used CL) and a larger time frame bar/candle chart (like 180 minute) and backtest with no inside bar looking.
The results will make you laugh. (essentially the backtest assumes that your trail follows to the tip of the wick and then is filled with no movement in between).
Backtest results like this are the reason that a lot of guys are skeptical of backtesting in general. Very deceiving.
I would assume so, otherwise he would be better off posting his actual statements. But you have to keep in mind that he is, or at least used to be, a vendor. His site is PricePhysics.com.
I backtested a system on the CL which produced around $250 000 yearly per contract after commissions. The MDD was around $2000. It does not work live, though.
Maybe I should post the results and sell my "system" to the unknowing public?