Discussion on Notes from Traders Talks and Vidoes

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Updated March 31, 2019

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Discussion on Notes from Traders Talks and Vidoes

March 26th, 2019, 05:29 PM

#1 (permalink)

aquarian1

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As I have been listening to the talks there comes up points of discussion where Fio members might like to share their thoughts.

As an example Jack Schwagger says that
some people say that entry is not important and you can do everything with trade management and have a profit.

and Tom Basso says that
he did a study with random entries that profited.

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March 26th, 2019, 05:52 PM

#3 (permalink)

aquarian1

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Tom Basso and Jack Schwagger seem to have opposite points on trade entry.

- random will work and trade entry is important.

I think the difference is in what they mean by trading.

Tom feels that trend following with capture the big moves (mathematically). I am guessing he means that you will get stopped out if you are not with the trend for a small loss but if the trade is with the trend you will stay in for the ride and two or three great rides with make up the lion's share of your profits for the year.

And so Tom does a study with random entries. (He doesn't mention if you go back in that sector after being stopped out after a certain time - but you would have to to capture a big move later in the year. So if silver is one of your sectors you are stopped out of a long silver trade in Jan - are you out for the year?)

However,
Tom retired 12 years prior to the 2015 interview => 2003 and his trading would have been prior to that. Trends could be much longer and cleaner then

Tom had a lot of money to manage and that allows very small percentages in each sector and so small stop losses of small percentages are small amounts

Tom description of his range volatility daily re-allocation method would not allow him to ride the tow big trades in a meaningful way

If the stops are set too close you are out too quicklu and if too wide a lot of stops can overwhelm your winners (especially if he is reducing the winners as they move with the range volatility re-allocation)

Most instruments spend the bulk of time non-trending e.g 80%(?)

The approach is too simple and easy and with today's back-testing it would be exploited by others and the edge gone

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March 31st, 2019, 01:59 AM

#4 (permalink)

aquarian1

Point Roberts, WA, USA

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Position sizing controversy

Jon Boorman - only and always bets 0.5%
(Jon has read van Thorp's Definitive Guide on Position sizing)

Jack Little - bets big amounts on some trades and also adds on the way up

What do people think of this opposite approach?

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Last Updated on March 31, 2019

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