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I am new to trading and have been watching the ES daily since Aug 31 2015. As I develop methods and work to tailor some of them to a variety of markets, I have read that the summer market tends to linger around an average of ~10 pts intraday (CME trading hours). I am not yet seeing that as the summer average (since memorial day of this year, 2016). I have calculated ~16 pt intraday moves since memorial day which is more conducive to most of my strategies.
I have already tailored these strategies to a higher volatile market as well, but not sure if they would work on a market consistently around 10 intraday points.
I have one strategy that is ready to employ live as the markets stand currently (as well as a higher volatile market), but I have restraints for entering a market with even less volatility and intraday movements than we are currently seeing. Any thoughts or comments on the current summer markets we are witnessing from traders who have witnessed a number of summer markets on the ES? Do the ES markets typically tend to make consistently low intraday movements more around 10 pts during the summer (with the exception of any big global news like China of last year)?
Brexit votes don't come around every summer, nor are risk of Fed rate hikes with so much significance all that common either. So all and all, this is not a normal summer.
Both Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remarks yesterday and President Obama’s speech last night about his jobs plan; combined, failed to reassure the market that a solution to the country’s economic woes was at hand, and the …
Last summer, there was barely any slowdown. So the slow down is not guaranteed.
But in a normal summer, the range can get way lower than 10 points. Smallest I can recall was 4.5 points.
The behavior is vastly different and the same strategies cannot be adjusted down IMO. You have to focus on playing the tight range. Best to do so using volume profile.
When summer comes, IF the ES slows down, so does everything else. You could switch to a higher volatility instrument - maybe 6E, Bund, NQ - those markets will be acting more like the "16 pt" ES that you are used to.
If it does slow down (and it has shown signs a few times in the past weeks), it'll be back to normal the week after labor day in the US.
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Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
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I pulled RTH ES data into a study in Excel from 2/2011 til today. Using 2000 days which give me 1359 days the market was open. Took the avg range for summer 3 ways:
June, July, August, September
3 Qtr
2015 3Qtr Only
Here are the findings...
If you would like the spreadsheet say the word.
Ron
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)