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I made the exact same mistake I did yesterday, only on the apex account. I was up 38 USD, ready to walk away. I looked at the rithmic dashboard to make sure I was flat, and the account showed a PnL of 0 USD.
I traded the wrong account again.
Instead of walking away, I decided to trade and I ended up having a losing day. This was especially frustrating since I was up on the week, and this last day puts me in the negative (although not by much). The last two trades I took today were definitely emotional and were caused by frustration. On a positive note, I was able to walk away with a manageable daily loss and avoided overtrading myself into oblivion.
I definitely need to be more careful before I start trading and make sure I'm in the right account. I'll add "check the account you are trading in" to my pregame checklist.
Here are the stats for the day:
Topstep combine
I was too triggered to trade, so I just didn't.
Weekly review Apex PA account
PnL: -25.62 USD
Losing week, so I won't be able to increase my size to 2 lots next week. I did great Monday to Wednesday, but I gave it all back Thursday and Friday. If I hadn't traded on the wrong account on Friday I would be up a solid 60 USD, which is not bad at all considering I'm trading one micro. But the bottom line is what matters in the end, and a losing week is a losing week.
Despite the improvable performance, I feel like I made improvements. I was more selective with my entries and I made very few emotional mistakes. I was also good at walking away when I reached my daily stop loss.
The average PnL per contract is -0.46 USD, so this is a losing week due to commissions. In fact, considering that I can make back this week's loss with just one average winning day, puts this week more in the "breakeven" category. This was also the first week on the PA account, so I wasn't expecting any kind of overperformance.
Here are the weekly stats:
Topstep combine
PnL: 415.82 USD
I only traded three days on this account (four if you consider the day that I traded on demo by accident).
I started with a clip of 3 micros but I increased it to 4 on the last day since I was having such a good performance on this account. I got better at switching from ninjatrader to topstepx, and now this is no longer a problem for me. I will also say that now that I have a PA account with apex, trading a combine with topstep feels a bit like trading on demo, which helps with emotions.
Here is the equity line from the topstepx platform:
I kept shorting that opening drive and got absolutely ran over. I had decided to experiment with correlations, so I was watching AAPL, MSFT, NVDA and GOOG to see how the MNQ reacted to the movements of those stocks. I think I went into information overload and I totally missed the obvious fact that MNQ was just going higher.
Even worse, I lost double of what I'm allowing myself to lose on a daily basis. I should have stopped after the fourth losing trade in a row, but instead I decided to open three more.
Here are the stats:
Topstep combine
PnL: -130.32 USD
I did a little bit better here, but I still ended up with a losing day.
2024-05-21 Apex PA account
PnL: -44.22 USD
Another losing day, the fourth one in a row. This is telling me that I'm simply not in tune with the market and I need to take a step back. I noticed that I've been taking too many trades near the point of control of the current range in the MNQ and I keep getting chopped up.
I will take the next two days off from trading the apex account, it's simply bleeding too much. Out of the 7 days I've traded in this account, 5 have been losers so I'm clearly doing something wrong.
Yesterday I tried looking for correlations, today I tried being a lot more systematic with my analysis. I've been refreshing my knowledge about market auction theory and I tried to implement some ideas in my trading. I think this messed up with my intuition and I ended up taking trades that I don't normally take.
Topstep combine
PnL: -64-06 USD
Small losing day, I was up and down the entire session. I will keep trading this account since it's just a combine, but I need to go back to basics and figure out what I've been doing wrong in the past few days.
I don't want this to come off as kicking you when you're down. Imagine we are having a conversation, and you asked me for help (which you didn't, but I'm pretending you did, heh). You are not being yelled at or scolded.
The fact of the matter is:
You are a new trader. It's rare for any trader to effectively trade on intuition, let alone an aspiring one. You are trading too many accounts, you are trading randomly, and you are frequently re-evaluating your edge (such as it is). It's all documented in your journal, too (which is great).
Remember, 5 losses or more in a row are perfectly natural; just like 5 wins in a row - but not if you keep altering the plan.
I had 22 losses in a row today. 22!!!... but I also had 66 wins in a row. They are all part of the plan, which I execute (practically) flawlessly. Food for thought.
It could take 500 trades or more, not 5, to determine if something is working. Definitely don't up your size because you had a good week - it could take months (based on a realistic time set by you) to determine whether your edge is working, if you are executing flawlessly. You should be trading one account in SIM until you can execute flawlessly. Many traders will say there is no emotion, but you are not at the stage to train emotion - you must practice executing flawlessly; win, lose, or draw. If you cannot do this in SIM with a single account, you are not ready to trade multiple accounts with real money (in the case of the prop firms, it's still simulated money at your stage).
And this statement...
No...no... address this mental error immediately. You treat this account seriously. If your plan with this account is one to gamble or try all kinds of techniques to learn what works and what doesn't - OK. I don't get that feeling from your journal, however.
At the end of the day, do not be hard on yourself. If you make an error, note it and try again. You're trading with the micros and that is good. Plus, you're journalling your progress, which is great. And you're taking a step back to refocus - very nice!
Thank you for the advice, it is always appreciated.
You both raise valid points, here are some clarifications
Right now I'm only trading two accounts, the apex PA and the topstep combine. Sometimes I trade on demo to do some drills. I assure you I'm not trading randomly, I have specific things that I look for and I'm definitely not re-evaluating my edge. I experiment with new things every once in a while to see if they might fit with my system. At the core I'm a pure price action trader, but I also use market auction theory to see the bigger picture.
As stated before, I can already do this. I'm very consistent when trading on demo. Nowdays I only do it when I'm drilling a specific aspect of my trading, like taking only one specific setup over and over.
Don't worry I don't plan on gambling away this account, I'm only trading 3 or 4 micros.
Let's say that "Trading with Intuition" is my goal. I believe that what makes a trader profitable is his intuition, not his system. The system is just a framework they use to allow intuition to emerge. This is why the only way to learn how to trade is to just trade, you can't be profitable using someone else's system because you don't have their intuition. I believe that this is true for quant traders as well: they need intuition to come up with the idea for a strategy, and they also need it to know when it is time to retire the strategy.
Damn 22 losses in a row and 66 wins in a row on the same day? You either take thousands of trades every day or have a very unusual type of risk management, I'm curious to know more!
Breakeven day, I was down during the first half but then I managed to string together some nice wins. I was up against the clock today (I only had one hour to trade) so I decided to walk away.
I realized from the recent posts on this thread that I'm being too superficial with the daily reviews I post here. Starting from tomorrow I will try to include my full review of the day (which I normally do on paper, I like to print out my charts) so that people get a better idea of what I'm doing. We'll see if it's sustainable, I'll stop and go back to the bare-bone version if it takes too much time off my day.
When I read your looking into correlation of various markets after experiencing some trades which didn't work, it raised red flags in my eyes. As I misinterpreted, I apologize.
I trade on a 500 tick or 500 volume chart on the NQ or MNQ. All the images in this post are of a 500 tick chart
I have a 5000 tick or 5000 volume chart to get some bigger picture context and to make sure I'm not missing an important level
I use market auction theory concepts
I don't draw volume profiles on my charts since the timeframe is volume based. All I need to do to spot a volume distribution is look for overlapping candles
I go for 5 to 10 point scalps with a 4 to 8 point stop, but it all depends on the volatility and the structure of the trade
I don't have rules set in stone when it comes to execution, there is a lot of discretion
I know that my setups have edge because I'm consistently profitable on demo. Unfortunately I still make mistakes when trading with skin in the game, like chasing entries or opening revenge trades. It's also more difficult to get a clear idea of what the market is currently doing.
Now let's look at some charts!
V-shape reversal outside of balance
These happen quite often and can be very profitable, but they are difficult to execute. Here is the gist of it:
Price is ranging creating a nice even distribution. We are in a balanced situation.
All of a sudden, price starts moving fast from the middle of the range or from one of the extremes.
When price reaches the opposite extreme, it breaks out with little hesitation and little volume. It continues to move fast with basically no resistance
It reverses just as fast, printing very little volume at the reversal point and quickly retracing back into the range
The reversal often happens when the V makes a measured move equal to the height of the range, but it can be smaller.
This pattern gives two entries:
enter aggressively at the bottom of the V, as soon as you see price stop moving fast.
enter when price is moving back in the range. The expectation is that we are back in a situation of balance, so price will retest the opposite side of the range or at the very least the middle.
The best entry is at the bottom (or top) of the V, but it's difficult to time it correctly because it reverses very quickly. There is an art to this, price often accelerates right before the reversal (exhaustion). When all is said and done, the V should look very symmetrical. I didn't pick the best looking example, but you get the idea.
Rounded top/bottom
This happens during a trend, and is an anticipation of a reversal or a reversal failure.
We need to be in a convincing trend.
The candles start to create this beautiful rounded pattern that looks very symmetrical
Once the pattern starts to curl up, enter counter-trend with the best price you can get
If the spike fails, exit immediately, the trend is starting again!
Enter in the direction of the trend
This is easier to execute because price action slows down when it's starting to curl. This pattern can signal a change of trend, but it fails often so I usually only scalp it. However if the counter-trend spike fails, it's a great signal to enter in the direction of the trend. Worst case scenario price will start to range, but you should be able to grab a quick scalp back in the middle of the curling zone.
Balance retest
This can be scary to take but can yeld some nice scalps.
After a nice and even balanced period, price becomes imbalanced and moves away convincingly
After some time (can be hours) price comes back to retest the middle of the range
Don't enter blindly, make sure there is some kind of reaction to that level. There is the chance that it shoots through to the opposite side of that old range
If it does go through the midline, watch what happens when it reaches the opposite side. It might start ranging again in the exact same place it did in the past
Another trade that requires a lot of trader intuition. Sometime it bounces right at the midline (notice in the example that this is also a V-shaped pattern, although there is a bit too much volume at the reversal point) and sometimes it's better to wait and see what happens at the opposite end of the old range.
Pullback
Ah the good old pullback. It looks so easy after the fact, but people forget how difficult it is to decide that the price is trending in the first place. Here is how I take pullbacks:
Recognize that price is trending. This is a combination of where we are in the higher timeframes, how the auction is executing (for example, compared to a previous situation of balance), how much volume is being transacted, and a sprinkle of that trader sixth sense.
Wait for price to make a "surprise" pullback. This should break the current narrative and should happen fast and with little volume. It's a bit like a V-shaped reversal, only this time price is in a channel instead of a range. In the example above it breaks that fast trendline I have drawn.
Place your bet when price starts to hesitate after the initial fast move. Look for confluence with a previous breakout zone.
One thing to note is the fact that pullbacks often happen with two legs. Again, there is an art to this. Sometimes I choose to wait for a second leg, sometimes I enter after the first spike down. I tend to be more aggressive with the entry earlier in the trend, and I tend to wait more for the two legs as the trend progresses.
Perhaps for point #6 you should consider some rules or refinements to address the execution differences experienced between demo and live. I think you are going to be great. Keep up the good effort!
