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Problem with roll-over of CL 06-10 to CL 07-10


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Problem with roll-over of CL 06-10 to CL 07-10

  #11 (permalink)
 
LostTrader's Avatar
 LostTrader 
Tucson, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: CL, TF
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If it helps, I look up dates for CL here:
Light Sweet Crude Oil

You do NOT want to be trading front month on the Settlement Day!! A Good broker will give you a call if you are still trading it the day before, but hopefully you would notice the volume has gone...

I also use this site to check front month volume levels to decide when to switch each month:
Light Sweet Crude Oil

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  #12 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
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Brokers usually follow rules and will close out your position days or hours before first notice (long position) or last trading (short position). Last trading day is too late for CL to roll. As it is a commodity with physical supply and demand (unlike financials or gold), the old contract is heavily influenced by the cash market. Positions have to be delivered to the middle of nowhere (Cushing, Oklahoma), and delivery constraints can increase volatility of the old contract. Need to roll at least 3 days prior to last trading.

As a rule of thumb you would roll around the 18th/19th, during the last years it always fell within the period from 15th to 21st of a month. So nex roll date for CL 08-10 will be around June, 18.


LostTrader View Post
If it helps, I look up dates for CL here:
Light Sweet Crude Oil

You do NOT want to be trading front month on the Settlement Day!! A Good broker will give you a call if you are still trading it the day before, but hopefully you would notice the volume has gone...

I also use this site to check front month volume levels to decide when to switch each month:
Light Sweet Crude Oil


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  #13 (permalink)
 
LostTrader's Avatar
 LostTrader 
Tucson, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: CL, TF
Posts: 74 since Sep 2009
Thanks Given: 21
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Fat Tails View Post
As a rule of thumb you would roll around the 18th/19th, during the last years it always fell within the period from 15th to 21st of a month. So next roll date for CL 08-10 will be around June, 18.

As a rule of thumb, you would roll when larger volume rolls from the July to the Aug contract. I used to associate that with the equity options expiration but have since learned better.

Do you really believe trading volume will be greater on the Aug contract next Friday?
Or do you actually roll regardless of volume?

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  #14 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
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I've said before, the third Thursday is usually very near the exact time when volume overtakes from one contract to another, and you switch.

For me, it doesn't have to be an exact science. I don't switch contracts in the middle of the day the moment volume takes over. If I am a day off, the world is not going to end. So, I use the third Thursday rule more or less and just make it consistent.

Mike



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  #15 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
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Last trading day for the July contract is Tuesday, June 22. So probably volume will shift on Thursday, June 17. Agree with Mike, this is no science. For commodity futures there are no specific rollover dates. Volume cross-over depends on the cash market.



LostTrader View Post
As a rule of thumb, you would roll when larger volume rolls from the July to the Aug contract. I used to associate that with the equity options expiration but have since learned better.

Do you really believe trading volume will be greater on the Aug contract next Friday?
Or do you actually roll regardless of volume?


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  #16 (permalink)
 
LostTrader's Avatar
 LostTrader 
Tucson, AZ
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: Mirus/Zen-Fire
Trading: CL, TF
Posts: 74 since Sep 2009
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Oh, I agree it isn't science. Just common sense and looking at the data.

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Last Updated on June 13, 2010


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