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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC


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CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC

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  #1691 (permalink)
 greenr 
london/england
 
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Surly View Post
Nice Ryan - I don't have the balls to short these open drives but I think its a good trade. Profile looks like short covering - that could weaken the market enough to make this trade work. Plus a big breakout prior to the report seems less likely - all favoring a short from the o/n high. Good luck...

What is it Mr. Dalton always says

The best trades are the ones that the hardest to mentally take

Jumping in the face of the market

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  #1692 (permalink)
 greenr 
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greenr View Post
Finding confluance to work with in the markets

Home work

Attachment 110008

Pretty good structure and trade here, if you look at the composite on the far left showing good trade and bell curve distribution

Good excess to work with at the highs long with the open gap above

A clear view of value here in this balance stage

Swing 1 today

Attachment 110009

Sold the 1.5 ETH vwap with O/N highs above at the extreeme of the composite distribution


For this trade to work, im expecting the O/N highs to hold and sellers respond at the highs of the distribution. Also a defend of the Open Gap above along with good excess from 4/15/2013

Attachment 110010

1 off.......some risk hedged

Here is my view of the foot print

Attachment 110012

Selling absorbtion and buying drying up here for the moment

Inital Balance in now, a expansion above and buyers above the 90`s i will be wrong and take a stop on my remaining two

More odd`s to the favour of this short


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  #1693 (permalink)
 
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 Surly 
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Sure is potential for a squeeze up here with all this volume at the highs. Probably a lot of stops above 90.00 and there's a reference level at 90.14.

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  #1694 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Ah it was worth a shot

I knew deep down that we were going to see a push higher with the amont of time we spent there with to response. Along with the fact we kept rejecting Value was a clue too

Keep you posted, i still think there is a short trade on its way today


i was just to early to the party to day

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  #1695 (permalink)
 
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 Surly 
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greenr View Post
Ah it was worth a shot

I knew deep down that we were going to see a push higher with the amont of time we spent there with to response. Along with the fact we kept rejecting Value was a clue too

Keep you posted, i still think there is a short trade on its way today

Please do - your analysis is always helpful. So far today we have an open drive, pushing above a key level at 89.30 and we've already pushed into the gap as well. I have that 90.14 as "a" bracket high but I'm not sure if the market views the bracket high as 89.30 or 90.14 or somewhere else. I'm also not sure whether we have begun to form a new bracket yet.

For now I'm going to stay bull biased until we get below the RTH VWAP. I think there are a lot of traders who expect lower prices so I think there's the potential at least for a strong move higher. Value continues to shift higher and we are 1-timeframing....

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  #1696 (permalink)
 greenr 
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Daily views big picture




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  #1697 (permalink)
 greenr 
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greenr View Post
Daily views big picture

Attachment 110022

Attachment 110023

Had to get in at a logical place now the market has shown its cards

Got a sloppy entry to be honest, RTH vwap with the upper IB extension was the best location

Got 2 scale outs just

Holding a runner....see if we can continue higher

Targets 4 IB extension i suppose around $91 even



Back into ETH value and i will have to reevaluate the situation

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  #1698 (permalink)
 greenr 
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greenr View Post
Had to get in at a logical place now the market has shown its cards

Got a sloppy entry to be honest, RTH vwap with the upper IB extension was the best location

Got 2 scale outs just

Holding a runner....see if we can continue higher

Targets 4 IB extension i suppose around $91 even

Attachment 110029

Back into ETH value and i will have to reevaluate the situation

Nice, nearly there



Was tempted to add on that last pull back, but hesitated

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  #1699 (permalink)
 
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 Surly 
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greenr View Post
Had to get in at a logical place now the market has shown its cards

Got a sloppy entry to be honest, RTH vwap with the upper IB extension was the best location


Back into ETH value and i will have to reevaluate the situation

Great job letting go of the idea the market was going lower. Pretty clear day IMO (although I wish my execution was better). I'm curious why you thought that was a sloppy entry, I thought the market number (90), rth vwap, and the IB high just below made that a great entry zone.

This other entry at vpoc and the edge of ETH value was also great - I had a tough time with it because I had levels below so I kept entering and scratching and entering and scratching - finally I just got it and walked away, only way I could just leave it be...

I'm not good enough to hold through these small pullbacks although I do think we're headed higher...

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  #1700 (permalink)
 
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 lrfsdad 
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losing day here, but targeting that small ledge from 4/12 is something I picked up on this thread. So far day's loss is manageable thanks to hitting that target

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