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The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range


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The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range

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  #31 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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CafeGrande View Post
Good point. With HH cash at a significant premium to Feb futures it seems like something had to give by 2:30 pm ET today. I'm sure there were some games, along with some panic buying, but unless NG futures are way different than most other futures contracts, cash and futures are supposed to converge near and at delivery date.

There has been a huge cry from grain farmers and commercial holders for years that futures and cash of grains do not converge at expiration anymore.

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  #32 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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SMCJB View Post
Did you see volume today? Feb traded only 15,000 lots.

Plus 4574 traded in pit.

But OI was only 8615 going into today. Trading in Feb today wasn't only about getting out.

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  #33 (permalink)
CafeGrande
St Paul, MN, USA
 
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ron99 View Post
There has been a huge cry from grain farmers and commercial holders for years that futures and cash of grains do not converge at expiration anymore.

Do you know if things are getting better? They've added a lot of delivery points and did something with storage rates in wheat (SRW), but I don't know if the changes have helped.

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  #34 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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CafeGrande View Post
Do you know if things are getting better? They've added a lot of delivery points and did something with storage rates in wheat (SRW), but I don't know if the changes have helped.

I haven't followed this closely so don't know.

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  #35 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
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Right now this is all about weather and that also drives cash. Note, Z6 spot reached $120.69 a week ago. It's getting colder now, forecasters are predicting heavy snow storms next week across all NE like crazy. Think this ICE accident simply added to the entire frenzy.

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  #36 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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Here's an interesting bit of info. The position limit drops to 1,000 contracts for the last 3 trading days. The last trading day for traders to get under this limit was Friday. Feb NG was up 0.452 that day.

I don't think it is a coincidence that the two trading days with the biggest price increase this year were days when traders had to get out of positions.

Also Feb NG on Monday after Friday's big rise was down 0.335.

I can't wait for the book telling us what really happened in NG the winter of 13/14.

I'm buying puts right now.

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  #37 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
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ron99 View Post
Plus 4574 traded in pit.

That in itself is suspicious!

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  #38 (permalink)
 
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 liquidcci 
Austin, TX
 
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Wow what a move. I turned my AT off. Was just to much swing for my comfort zone. But I should have left it on because would have made a killing. Better safe than sorry. At least I think better safe than sorry.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #39 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
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Anyone here long h/j? Given recent moves, I think we could get beyond 1.000+ easily...

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  #40 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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SMCJB View Post
That in itself is suspicious!

How so?

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