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The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range


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The Natural Gas Roller Coaster. Jan 16th 14.2% tradeable range

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  #41 (permalink)
CafeGrande
St Paul, MN, USA
 
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Alphachase View Post
Anyone here long h/j? Given recent moves, I think we could get beyond 1.000+ easily...


95 cents inverse/backwardation. Might get there this afternoon or in the overnight session.

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  #42 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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SMCJB View Post
Did you see volume today? Feb traded only 15,000 lots.


ron99 View Post
Plus 4574 traded in pit.


SMCJB View Post
That in itself is suspicious!


ron99 View Post
How so?

CME final volumes for yesterday show a total of 394 lots of NG traded open outcry for all months.

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  #43 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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Sorry the 4574 was for Tues. I have 171 pit trades and 1635 PNT trades for Wed. 15798 electronic trades.

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  #44 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
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CME raises NG margins 26% to 5005/4550 spec. Effective since tomorrow evening. LOL

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  #45 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
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ron99 View Post
Sorry the 4574 was for Tues. I have 171 pit trades and 1635 PNT trades for Wed. 15798 electronic trades.

The same here. 17604 total, 15798 elec for Feb contracts. 45220 PIT for all months yday (G14-G16).

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  #46 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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Mar NG down .170 right now. Mar puts are trading lower???

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  #47 (permalink)
Alphachase
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Nope. Mar puts ATM amer are slightly hihger (7-9% on the day). Vols down

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  #48 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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Alphachase View Post
Nope. Mar puts ATM amer are slightly hihger (7-9% on the day). Vols down

When I wrote the post Mar NG 450 put was offered 6 ticks lower than settlement. Every OTM put was offered lower than settlement. I don't look at ATM options.

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  #49 (permalink)
Alphachase
Nicosia, Cyprus
 
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Hah, 30 min ago? yes were down a lil. Mar vols 25D call 88.8 (23% down), put 59.8 (11% down) right now.

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  #50 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Well it's been a crazy volatile few weeks.

ATR of the Feb NG contract overly the last 4 trading days before expiry was a stunning 10.5% and over the last 6 days a whopping 9.0% (5.8, 6.3, 11, 11.8, 5.6. 13.5). Yes that's an average range of 10.5% over a four day period!!!

In the 10 trading days since Feb has expired Mar has had an ATR of 8.0%! To illustrate the volatility of the Mar-Apr spread, Apr has an ATR of 3.8%, under half Mar over the same 10 days.

Rumors abound on who the big winners and losers are. WSJ did report the Head of DE Shaw's energy group is out after they lost in excess of $100 Million but I suspect that's just the tip of the iceberg. We'll probably have to wait 10 years for a book to explain all!

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