NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Wheat and Corn


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one 0bl1vion with 5 posts (2 thanks)
    2. looks_two tturner86 with 3 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Symple with 3 posts (3 thanks)
    4. looks_4 kevinkdog with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 6,289 views
    2. thumb_up 8 thanks given
    3. group 8 followers
    1. forum 16 posts
    2. attach_file 3 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Wheat and Corn

  #1 (permalink)
 
0bl1vion's Avatar
 0bl1vion 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Natural Gas
Posts: 28 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 14

So I'm just looking over the price chart for the Sept-14 Wheat contract...



If one to go short in early May and hold the position until August, we are looking at 150 point gain. That's close 8k on a single contract. Wheat doesn't seem to be too volatile. I know it's easy in retrospect - but if the entry point is decent, at most you'd need to tolerate 2-3k in stress, on 1 contract. To me, this seems like easy money, what am I missing?

Corn also seems to follow the same general trend.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
29 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
24 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
24 thanks
Bigger Wins or Fewer Losses?
21 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
17 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
 
tturner86's Avatar
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-40
Trading: GBU-39
Posts: 6,191 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 10,459
Thanks Received: 12,695



0bl1vion View Post
So I'm just looking over the price chart for the Sept-14 Wheat contract...



If one to go short in early May and hold the position until August, we are looking at 150 point gain. That's close 8k on a single contract. Wheat doesn't seem to be too volatile. I know it's easy in retrospect - but if the entry point is decent, at most you'd need to tolerate 2-3k in stress, on 1 contract. To me, this seems like easy money, what am I missing?

Corn also seems to follow the same general trend.

Don't look at it in Hindsight, look in May with none of the data since then. What kind of signal would have told you to sell then and hold? What about a month or so later when it pulls back? What would have told you to hold?

Hindsight everything is perfect, but the hard right edge is where you trade.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)
 
0bl1vion's Avatar
 0bl1vion 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Natural Gas
Posts: 28 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 14

If I was to seasonally trade wheat, I wouldn't bother looking at technicals. Starting early May, the instrument establishes a down trend. This fundamental trend is repeated yearly (given there's no major droughts/shortages predicted for summer).

Edit: I'm not suggesting completely abandoning the technical aspect. Just saying that it's not as important because the seasonal factor is involved. Technicals are important for picking a good entry position.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #5 (permalink)
 
tturner86's Avatar
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-40
Trading: GBU-39
Posts: 6,191 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 10,459
Thanks Received: 12,695


0bl1vion View Post
If I was to seasonally trade wheat, I wouldn't bother looking at technicals. Starting early May, the instrument establishes a down trend. This fundamental trend is repeated yearly (given there's no major droughts/shortages predicted for summer).

Edit: I'm not suggesting completely abandoning the technical aspect. Just saying that it's not as important because the seasonal factor is involved. Technicals are important for picking a good entry position.

If it's that easy then why didn't you take the trade?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #6 (permalink)
 
0bl1vion's Avatar
 0bl1vion 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Natural Gas
Posts: 28 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 14


tturner86 View Post
If it's that easy then why didn't you take the trade?

It's not easy. If you don't have anything constructive to add to the conversation, save us both time by moving on.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,663 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,892
Thanks Received: 7,357


0bl1vion View Post
It's not easy. If you don't have anything constructive to add to the conversation, save us both time by moving on.

Actually @tturner86 is being very constructive. You said in your original post "this seems like easy money." The fact is it wasn't easy money at the time. That I believe is tturner's point.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)
 
0bl1vion's Avatar
 0bl1vion 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/CQG
Trading: Natural Gas
Posts: 28 since Jun 2012
Thanks Given: 16
Thanks Received: 14

Wheat Sept-13


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)
 
tturner86's Avatar
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-40
Trading: GBU-39
Posts: 6,191 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 10,459
Thanks Received: 12,695


0bl1vion View Post
To me, this seems like easy money, what am I missing?

To reiterate you are missing the fact you are looking at something in hindsight. Remember the key about any market and trading is "Past Performance is not indicative of future results."

All I have asked is how you would have known to take the trade and how you would managed the trade over time to get a profit.

I could look at a chart of TSLA (Tesla) today and say it was a good idea to buy in 2012. But what were the signals in 2012 like?

It seems like easy money because it is looked at in hindsight.

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #10 (permalink)
 
wldman's Avatar
 wldman 
Chicago Illinois USA
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Hours
Posts: 3,512 since Aug 2011
Thanks Given: 2,047
Thanks Received: 9,513


and I stop by because I think this thread is about tortillas. Maybe I need some time away from the desk? DB

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on June 21, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts