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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system


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Trading Oil - "Velocity" system

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  #71 (permalink)
 
Okina's Avatar
 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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My trading journey started 5 month ago and I have now down almost all the mistakes:

overconfidence
lack of confidence
lack of professionalism (care less attitude)
curve fitting

I may be ready to trade well ?

I know when I compare my results to what I could see in some journals that I was lucky to have made money or not to lose some even when I make mistakes. Some people may think that it is over modesty and by that a form of pretension or even BS.

I'm not modest and not pretentious I just have one quality that is I think major in trading I have a very open mind. I adapt very fast, I analyse a lot and I can change my mind very fast. Being stubborn is the greatest error you can make in trading. When you are wrong the market tell you that very fast. If you don't listen you will pay the price. That is the main reason of my "luck".

I start looking at ES now. I have realized that CL is now a carbon copy of ES.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #72 (permalink)
 
Okina's Avatar
 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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Big one (missed). I post it just in order to "remember" and also because this one (like most of the big one) is a perfect illustration of the system. I was not in front of my screen. I keep now a screenshot of all the perfect and all the failed.

Change of "permission" at the same time on RB and CVB, impulse at the same time on RB and CVB. This one would had been +100 ticks.

Strangely I'm not upset to have missed it since I know that I would had took it if I was in front of my screen (not like the same one yesterday).

It is just a move, just a day, there will be a lot of others.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #73 (permalink)
 
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 michaelleemoore 
Missoula, MT Nɫʔay(ccstm)
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Okina View Post
Being stubborn is the greatest error you can make in trading. When you are wrong the market tell you that very fast. If you don't listen you will pay the price. That is the main reason of my "luck".

I start looking at ES now. I have realized that CL is now a carbon copy of ES.

OKina, I can't agree with you more. It's so interesting to me how clearly some traders are hampered by sticking with a predetermined bias about the market. Trade what you see has become a cliche for sure, but it remains true -- we can't exert our will on the market, but it can certainly exert its will on us.

Continue on with what you're doing. You're in the right space with your head. And don't let the critics get to you. As a dreaded "scalper," I get my share of critics. My response is to trade my plan and keep making $$. That's proof enough that I'm doing something right. Keep doing the same.

Michael

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  #74 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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@michaelleemoore

Thank you for your kind words.

I think most people has a bias against scalpers for a very human reason. I think it is in human nature l to want to "look intelligent", to have the felling that you can have a rational explanation of your acts and you are "in control".

When I buy or when I sell, it is not because I think that the number of oil rigs is rising or declining, it is not because employment go up or down, it is just because I think that odds (represented by some indicators) are in my favor. I have no intelligent explanation to provide. Imagine yourself in middle of a crowd explaining your business and saying: I have no idea why it went up or down, I just catch the train. You will look stupid. I think that is the main reason that a lot of traders are against intraday scalping. And most of the time they do not realize that.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #75 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
Western Florida
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Okina View Post
@michaelleemoore

Thank you for your kind words.

I think most people has a bias against scalpers for a very human reason. I think it is in human nature l to want to "look intelligent", to have the felling that you can have a rational explanation of your acts and you are "in control".

When I buy or when I sell, it is not because I think that the number of oil rigs is rising or declining, it is not because employment go up or down, it is just because I think that odds (represented by some indicators) are in my favor. I have no intelligent explanation to provide. Imagine yourself in middle of a crowd explaining your business and saying: I have no idea why it went up or down, I just catch the train. You will look stupid. I think that is the main reason that a lot of traders are against intraday scalping. And most of the time they do not realize that.

Applies to any kind of trading, not only scalping and not even only day-trading. It's "investors" who know about oil rigs and the economy and all that. At least, they talk like they do.

Bob.

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  #76 (permalink)
 
xplorer's Avatar
 xplorer 
London UK
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Okina View Post
My trading journey started 5 month ago and I have now down almost all the mistakes:

overconfidence
lack of confidence
lack of professionalism (care less attitude)
curve fitting

I may be ready to trade well ?

I know when I compare my results to what I could see in some journals that I was lucky to have made money or not to lose some even when I make mistakes. Some people may think that it is over modesty and by that a form of pretension or even BS.

I'm not modest and not pretentious I just have one quality that is I think major in trading I have a very open mind. I adapt very fast, I analyse a lot and I can change my mind very fast. Being stubborn is the greatest error you can make in trading. When you are wrong the market tell you that very fast. If you don't listen you will pay the price. That is the main reason of my "luck".

I start looking at ES now. I have realized that CL is now a carbon copy of ES.

I bet that most users on this forum - or most people who trade for that matter - would define an approach that leads to virtually no net daily losses over 5 months + very decent wins on 1 lot as a solid and successful one.

Having that in mind, is there a particular reason why you intend to move to another security before building on this strategy, for example by adding more contracts?

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  #77 (permalink)
 
Okina's Avatar
 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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xplorer View Post
I bet that most users on this forum - or most people who trade for that matter - would define an approach that leads to virtually no net daily losses over 5 months + very decent wins on 1 lot as a solid and successful one.

Having that in mind, is there a particular reason why you intend to move to another security before building on this strategy, for example by adding more contracts?

I'm not leaving CL I like it and I'm just at the beginning of my journey. I need to start to learn how to trade other instruments. It is also for pure intellectual interest. My system seems to fit well with ES. I want to find some parameters but the signal are not too bad even if I keep the same parameters. They of course need some fitting for example the 200 CVB is way to short considering the volume of trade on ES but on 2 RB it looks ok.

I'm curious by nature.

Here a couple of potential trade on ES without any optimization of the parameters. It looks like winning trade will be smaller than CL (not a lot of +1000$ runner) but much more opportunities.






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  #78 (permalink)
 
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 TheShrike 
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Okina View Post
I start looking at ES now. I have realized that CL is now a carbon copy of ES.

Hi Okina, I've been following your journal a bit and just wanted to chime in.

It may seem that way in light of recent market activity but then is CL a carbon copy of ES or is ES mimicking CL? They are not the same, I assure you. At times they will mimic each other very closely as has been seen the last couple of days/weeks. At other times, they can act in opposite fashion so I would caution you before you adopt that assumption. The markets have been following oil lately. That will not always be the case so I'd hate for you to assume that and then look back at CL at the end of the day and realize you've missed some excellent opportunities.

Hope it helps

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  #79 (permalink)
 
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 Okina 
montreal quebec/canada
 
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I did not trade well this week. The reason behind that is we had a lot of huge moves that I did not catch. The first one my system did not catch it so I stick to the rules and I did not play it. The second I was not in front of my screen. This morning I see another big one starting around 8AM. My system did not catch it. So I stick to the rule and do not play.

BUT this "3 misses" affected me (even if did not realize it) so I start trading anything but not my system. I've done 10 trades today (my system never get me that much). And I lose 28 ticks.. I have "invented" good reason to trade just in order to "compensate" for the miss of the 3 big one.

After a careful review of the signal I had only 3 signals today: 2 good winners and a flat or a small lose (-/+ 2 ticks).

Good lesson learned.

I post the 3 signals for reference: first +48 ticks, +23, +/- 2

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #80 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014



Okina View Post
I did not trade well this week. The reason behind that is we had a lot of huge moves that I did not catch...so I stick to the rules and I did not play it.... So I stick to the rule and do not play.

Sounds like you are trading very well, paraphrasing your post. Sticking to your rules will assure you success. Looking back at the "big ones" you could have had had you just "been there" will run you into ruin if you let them get to you.

Remember...The big moves you have missed are not the end of them ever forever. Those were not the last big moves that will ever happen in that market. They WILL happen again. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but they WILL happen again.

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Last Updated on April 1, 2016


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