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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #91 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Just got the 14 day free trial at MRCI. A lot of interesting stuff. What do you guys think about April Platinum buy around Christmas? Has a 100% win, no max DD greater than average win, and price has followed the seasonal pattern pretty close all year.

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  #92 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
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myrrdin View Post
Correct. In my opinion, the first one is the most important one. Usually, if the first criteria is fulfilled, the third one is fulfilled, too.

If the second one is not fulfilled, you should look for the reason. Eg. during the economic crisis 2008/2009 some commodities showed severe drawdowns. But this was not a typical year. Another example: Meat markets show untypical behaviour in years that were influenced by major deseases.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I recently started really exploring my MRCI. I figured out some fuctions. Like the one that allows you to track current price action to see how well it is keeping on track seasonally.

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  #93 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Just got the 14 day free trial at MRCI. A lot of interesting stuff. What do you guys think about April Platinum buy around Christmas? Has a 100% win, no max DD greater than average win, and price has followed the seasonal pattern pretty close all year.

The Platinum trade from December onwards looks good this year.

Platinum follows its seasonal chart since end of May nicely.

Unfortunately COT data is only neutral to slightly bullish.

A lot of weakness in recent time (compared to Palladium) stems from the fact that Platinum is used in catalysators for Diesel engines, and these engines are not very popular in these days.

The largest drawdowns since 2003 were approx. $5,000 and $8,000 in 2013 and 2012, but these trades started above 1,500. Still it is recommended to keep the lot size in a fair relation to the size of the account.

Average profit in the most recent 15 years was $3,800. In twelve of these years Best Equity Amount was approx. $3,000 or higher.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #94 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
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I yesterday got IQfeeds COT feature. I haven't looked at it but can you recommend a good source on learning how to use the COT in general correctly and to my advantage? ie if commercials are buying as price is going down does that signal a possible move to the upside in the near future. Or do I focus of swaps? That sort of thing.

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  #95 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I yesterday got IQfeeds COT feature. I haven't looked at it but can you recommend a good source on learning how to use the COT in general correctly and to my advantage? ie if commercials are buying as price is going down does that signal a possible move to the upside in the near future. Or do I focus of swaps? That sort of thing.

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I learnt a lot from the book of Floyd Upperman, and was customer of his services for a while.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #96 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
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myrrdin View Post
I learnt a lot from the book of Floyd Upperman, and was customer of his services for a while.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Myrrdin,

Is this the one?

Commitments of Traders : Strategies for Tracking the Market and Trading Profitably

Jason

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  #97 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Futuresnoob View Post
Myrrdin,

Is this the one?

Commitments of Traders : Strategies for Tracking the Market and Trading Profitably

Jason

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It is a long time ago I read the book. But I do not think Floyd has written books on trading without connex to COT data. I would take the most recent book on COT data he has written.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #98 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
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You guys have any upcoming trades you are looking at? I think I'm gonna pull the trigger on the platinum trade on 12/22. Going to use a platinum ETF to lower the risk a bit as it will be my first live seasonal trade.

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  #99 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
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I am waiting for the the gold trade.

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  #100 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Seasonalgo has a free webinar tomorrow it's on their site I'm gonna check it out and see


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