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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #101 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I am waiting for the the gold trade.

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Why do you like this trade? Curious on your thought process

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  #102 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Question is directed at @myrrdin but anyone feel free to comment.

What do you think about getting in on a spread when it is far away from its seasonal mean?

Example:
Right now the march RB-HO spread is in a pretty bad equity position compared to its past performance. The seasonal trend is only up from here, so is it probable to expect that the spread will revert to its mean even a little bit from here?

Wont put a screenshot to avoid putting paid info out there but it is Spread strategy #4724

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  #103 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Question is directed at @myrrdin but anyone feel free to comment.

What do you think about getting in on a spread when it is far away from its seasonal mean?

Example:
Right now the march RB-HO spread is in a pretty bad equity position compared to its past performance. The seasonal trend is only up from here, so is it probable to expect that the spread will revert to its mean even a little bit from here?

Wont put a screenshot to avoid putting paid info out there but it is Spread strategy #4724

Simply being away from its seasonal mean is not enough reason for me to trade a spread. Often there is a reason for the spread to do so, and it moves further on in the same direction.

I like the RB-HO spread a lot at this time of the year, but do not trade it this year. The weather experts forecast the probability of La Nina at 90 %. This means that it could get very cold in the Northern part of the US. As a consequence, HO prices would rise, and RB prices would decrease due to less traffic (snow, ice).

In case this scenario occurs there might be an excellent entry for this trade in January or February. Otherwise, this trade will leave the station without me.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #104 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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myrrdin View Post
Simply being away from its seasonal mean is not enough reason for me to trade a spread. Often there is a reason for the spread to do so, and it moves further on in the same direction.

I like the RB-HO spread a lot at this time of the year, but do not trade it this year. The weather experts forecast the probability of La Nina at 90 %. This means that it could get very cold in the Northern part of the US. As a consequence, HO prices would rise, and RB prices would decrease due to less traffic (snow, ice).

In case this scenario occurs there might be an excellent entry for this trade in January or February. Otherwise, this trade will leave the station without me.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Makes sense. Awesome stuff as always.

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  #105 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Looking at this KC Wheat- Chi Wheat spread. Seems promising with its 15-0 performance, low drawdowns and its cheap entry price relative to years past. KCW should be trading at a premium to ZW from what I have read.

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  #106 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Looking at this KC Wheat- Chi Wheat spread. Seems promising with its 15-0 performance, low drawdowns and its cheap entry price relative to years past. KCW should be trading at a premium to ZW from what I have read.

I hold this position for seasonal reasons, and intend to sell the first half below the November high. I intend to tighten the stop for the second half in the middle of January when the seasonals become weaker.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #107 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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On the fence on this live cattle spread coming up tomorrow. Doesn't seem to have performed as well in the last 5 years but following the 15 year avg nicely.

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  #108 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Dabears2322 View Post
On the fence on this live cattle spread coming up tomorrow. Doesn't seem to have performed as well in the last 5 years but following the 15 year avg nicely.

Which live cattle spread are you talking about ? Please specify.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #109 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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myrrdin View Post
Which live cattle spread are you talking about ? Please specify.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Oct 18- Apr 18. Start date 1/4, end date 2/12

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  #110 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Oct 18- Apr 18. Start date 1/4, end date 2/12

This spread is suggested by MRCI.

It worked in 13 of the most recent 15 years. The spread followed the seasonal chart nicely since early September. Relation profit / loss potential is not exciting.

I will not enter this bear spread, as I am currently long the LCJ contract, having sold the LCJ P110. There will be a time when it is a good idea to short the LCJ, but in my opinion it is too early now. Fundamental reasons: Extreme cold, larger reduction of cattle from Q4 to Q1 compared to average. It is interesting to note that the reaction to the bearish CoF report just before Christmas was bullish.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Last Updated on May 4, 2021


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