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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #171 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
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cornnut View Post
Looking at MRCI spread rec of Buy Sep NG sell Mar NG. Enter 1/24 exit 2/11.

Has been profitable 15/15 years with avg profit of $1,600, max DD of $3,550.

It looks like a quick trade and awfully consistent.

Any reason to shy away from this trade?

I am a bit hesitant with Nat gas at such low prices entering into a bear spread, but this even worked in 2014.

I think it is worthwhile.

Looks like there might be a rise in prices with cold spell coming but I doubt that cold will last. So that should be time to enter this trade.

Yes it did work in 2014 but mainly by luck of getting a high day to enter and a low day to exit.

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  #172 (permalink)
cornnut
Muncie, IN
 
Posts: 11 since Jan 2020
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Thoughts on buying May Heating Oil 1/19 selling 2/1 recommended by MRCI? Would probably enter Tuesday 2/21 because of holiday.

It has been profitable 14/15 years, with 2,239 avg profit and 6,325 Max DD.

Currently Heating Oil is in a downtrend since the start of Jan, I was thinking of only making this trade if heating oil makes some kind of positive turn. It appears to have made similar positives turns out of downtrends around the entry date in the past.

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  #173 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
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cornnut View Post
Thoughts on buying May Heating Oil 1/19 selling 2/1 recommended by MRCI? Would probably enter Tuesday 2/21 because of holiday.

It has been profitable 14/15 years, with 2,239 avg profit and 6,325 Max DD.

Currently Heating Oil is in a downtrend since the start of Jan, I was thinking of only making this trade if heating oil makes some kind of positive turn. It appears to have made similar positives turns out of downtrends around the entry date in the past.

Some thoughts:

The chart did not follow the seasonal chart nicely in recent months.
COT data is more or less neutral.
The trade would work in case of a significant cold blast or in case of a severe problem with Iran. I am unable to make a forecast regarding these issues.
In 6 of the most recent 15 years the trade showed a worst equity amount of approx. -1800 USD or less. Check if your are willing to hold the trade through such a problem.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #174 (permalink)
volramp
Tel Aviv Israel
 
Posts: 14 since May 2017
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cornnut View Post
Thoughts on buying May Heating Oil 1/19 selling 2/1 recommended by MRCI? Would probably enter Tuesday 2/21 because of holiday.

It has been profitable 14/15 years, with 2,239 avg profit and 6,325 Max DD.

Currently Heating Oil is in a downtrend since the start of Jan, I was thinking of only making this trade if heating oil makes some kind of positive turn. It appears to have made similar positives turns out of downtrends around the entry date in the past.

Can you show the chart?

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  #175 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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volramp View Post
Can you show the chart?

As far as I remember you can get a free trial from MRCI.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #176 (permalink)
 
Thierryq's Avatar
 Thierryq 
Recife + Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Denali
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myrrdin View Post
Some thoughts:

The chart did not follow the seasonal chart nicely in recent months.
COT data is more or less neutral.
The trade would work in case of a significant cold blast or in case of a severe problem with Iran. I am unable to make a forecast regarding these issues.
In 6 of the most recent 15 years the trade showed a worst equity amount of approx. -1800 USD or less. Check if your are willing to hold the trade through such a problem.

Best regards, Myrrdin

The risks I see here:

# I agree with @myrrdin: not following the seasonal chart for the whole past year. Too risky
# Futures contract alone, not a spread with smaller drawdowns.

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  #177 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
Experience: Advanced
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Broker: QST, DeCarley Trading, Gain
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volramp View Post
Can you show the chart?

I have Tableau charts available for HO here.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

You can set starting and ending dates and see how the contract preformed in your selected years.

Here are my other Tableau charts for most major futures. Look for Tableaus that start with "Seasonal Futures".
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

There are also Tableau charts for other data as well like monthly and weekly EIA data.

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  #178 (permalink)
 
Thierryq's Avatar
 Thierryq 
Recife + Brazil
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Broker: Denali
Trading: ES, spreads
Posts: 36 since Mar 2012
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ron99 View Post
I have Tableau charts available for HO here.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

You can set starting and ending dates and see how the contract preformed in your selected years.

Here are my other Tableau charts for most major futures. Look for Tableaus that start with "Seasonal Futures".
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

There are also Tableau charts for other data as well like monthly and weekly EIA data.

Been visiting your Tableau charts. this is valuable information you’re sharing with us. Thanks a lot

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  #179 (permalink)
volramp
Tel Aviv Israel
 
Posts: 14 since May 2017
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Considering to enter the following trade :
HE (Lean Hogs) -Apr20/+Aug20 from 13

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  #180 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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volramp View Post
Considering to enter the following trade :
HE (Lean Hogs) -Apr20/+Aug20 from 13

What is your motivation to consider this trade ?

I am currently long the LHG-LHQ spread, as I consider the G an J-contracts as undervalued compared to the summer contracts for S/D reasons.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Last Updated on May 4, 2021


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