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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!


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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

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  #91 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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And that ladies and gentlemen was I believe the first ever storage build for the last week of February! In fact I'm not sure we've ever had a build next week either!

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  #92 (permalink)
 ron99 
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This winter season's inventory drop is now less than 5 yr avg


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  #93 (permalink)
 ron99 
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SMCJB View Post
And that ladies and gentlemen was I believe the first ever storage build for the last week of February! In fact I'm not sure we've ever had a build next week either!

Since 1999, the first build of the year, prior to last week, was for week 11. Last week was week 8.

Week ending 3/17/07 had a build of 17. 3/20/09 had a build of 3 and no withdrawals after that week for that winter. 3/16/12 had a build of 11 and no withdrawals after that week for that winter. 3/20/15 had a build of 12.

So some winters only had 15 weeks of withdrawals. Other had up to 22 weeks of withdrawals.



The aqua line at the bottom with the most withdrawal is 13/14.

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ron99 View Post
The aqua line at the bottom with the most withdrawal is 13/14.

And what a fun winter that was.

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 ron99 
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And what a fun winter that was.

I'm trying to not think of that year again.

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 ron99 
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I made a new NG chart. YTD daily averages from the EIA NG Weekly Update



It's available here. Title is Energies-NG Weekly Data
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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 ron99 
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DCOT says Managed Money specs have added 93k shorts the last 6 weeks. Longs have stubbornly stayed at same amount of contracts for 6 months.

Soon the NG shorts will need to take profit if futures have stopped dropping. I'm thinking next movement will be to upside but I don't see a big movement or that it will be anything quick.


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 ron99 
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Excellent article showing reaction of NG futures after release of weekly EIA storage report.

Is The Weekly Anxiety Over Natural Gas Storage Report A 'Much Ado About Nothing'? - The United States Natural Gas [AUTOLINK]ETF[/AUTOLINK], LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) | Seeking Alpha

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That's quite an astute piece in many ways, and I think he hit the nail on the head. Since pipeline flows have become readily available, estimating storage levels is a lot more precise than when models were all weather related. Today you have a good estimate Monday morning, and a final estimate by Tuesday, of what the storage number will be on Thursday. Back when there was actually a Storage Market/Auction, it was even held Wednesday afternoon.

I suspect that the majority of the huge volume spike that happens in the minutes after the release is computers jousting with each other, all volume that is closed out almost immediately. It seems to me, that there are a lot less orders in the order book than there used to be at release time, but I can't support that opinion with evidence.

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ron99 View Post

ICE's storage market for
this week/9 Mar is -65/-63 traded -64
next week/16 Mar is /-50
3rd week/23 mar /-70 traded -80
so looks like expectations are for us to draw another 200 in the next 3 weeks despite last weeks build.

End of season markets
end withdrawal/13 Apr is 2082/2088
end injection/7 Nov is 3655/3660 with 3650, 3660 and 3665 having traded

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Last Updated on April 26, 2018


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