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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!


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Nat Gas Bullish , not Bearish!

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  #111 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Nice charts Ron.

Wish I could say these were mine but they are all from John Kemp's daily email... (free to join)...

Winiter was warm



Even warmer than last year



Summer has started out Warm as well


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  #112 (permalink)
 ron99 
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I've got those charts too

Running total of pwHDD for 2016, 2017 (2017 only 1.7% less than 2016) and long term average



pwHDD for each day of 15/16 season vs long term average for that date



pwHDD for each day of 16/17 season vs long term average for that date



Those charts are here under Weather-US Population Weighted Degree Days
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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  #113 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Move over John Kemp....

I see you posting some of the LNG charts on Twitter. Why not post some of these as well?

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 ron99 
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SMCJB View Post
Move over John Kemp....

I see you posting some of the LNG charts on Twitter. Why not post some of these as well?

I posted this one on Monday.


I slowed down on posting HDD charts because we are out of winter season and CDD season hasn't really started yet.

But they are always available and up to date here https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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 SMCJB 
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Three weeks into April and 3 draw downs in inventories. I believe this weeks draw (3rd week of April) was the first time that we've ever had a draw this late and that this is the first time we've cumulatively drawn stocks over the first 3 weeks. Despite that prices continue to be in the middle to lower end of the last 4 month range.

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 ron99 
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Week ending 4/13/07 the withdrawal was 46. But there were builds 3 of 4 prior weeks.

Week ending 4/11/03 withdrawal of 46.
4/14/00 withdrawal 33.
4/11/97 withdrawal 22.
4/18/97 withdrawal 5.

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  #117 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Sorry your right - I was looking at last 10 years, not all history

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 ron99 
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You can access the last 17 years here.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8870

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Fx93
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SMCJB View Post
Three weeks into April and 3 draw downs in inventories. I believe this weeks draw (3rd week of April) was the first time that we've ever had a draw this late and that this is the first time we've cumulatively drawn stocks over the first 3 weeks. Despite that prices continue to be in the middle to lower end of the last 4 month range.

I've been watching it daily, the trading has seemed slightly maniacal to the downside. I don't think now is the time for a continued sell off though, and there has been a decent number of bouncing rallies. The trend is down though but I hope it levels off.

I am playing SWN heavy instead, I have sold puts at $4 and $5, and will play with SWN with puts in the $4-6 area and then covered calls if assigned. I have good basis with SWN and am in doubt prices will go lower from here.

What I don't like is how oil is so high but oil stocks not so much. If oil sells off will these tumble further or just take it softly? If both oil and nat gas tumble it would get bloody. I doubt this scenario just because both have been down for so long to begin with, so take it with a grain of salt, but prices will recover at some point...

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Draw of 18. I think I'm correct this week in saying it's the largest draw for this week of the year and only the second time we have drawn stocks this late in the year. Still a cumulative withdrawal so far this month, where as traditionally we would have added 100-200 BCF of gas into storage already.

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