NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Grains & Beans


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 125 posts (152 thanks)
    2. looks_two WoodyFox with 40 posts (33 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 36 posts (53 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Schnook with 31 posts (43 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 1.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Schnook with 1.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WoodyFox with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 69,050 views
    2. thumb_up 338 thanks given
    3. group 49 followers
    1. forum 294 posts
    2. attach_file 44 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Grains & Beans

  #131 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
Posts: 409 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 196
Thanks Received: 876


myrrdin View Post
I intend to buy corn early next week. Reasons for my decision:

COT data looks bullish to me.
Seasonal chart looks bullish.
There will be weather risk for the next couple of weeks.
Downside risk seems to be limited because of COT data and weather risk. There will be weather risk until reliable forecasts are available for the pollination period in the US.

I will buy 50 % of the position outright (C-future) and 50 % against the wheat future (C-W).

Best regards, Myrrdin

I bought Corn at 319 last Wednesday. Looks like 316 would have been a little better.
If it keeps pulling back, I will buy another contract at 314 to average down. So Lets hope your right!

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Diary of a simple price action trader
20 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
16 thanks
My NQ Trading Journal
15 thanks
Coding money management strategies.
14 thanks
HumbleTraders next chapter
9 thanks
  #132 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,381
Thanks Received: 10,205

Hasn't the Oil/Gasoline/Ethanol situation really destroyed Corn demand?

Reply With Quote
  #133 (permalink)
 
Schnook's Avatar
 Schnook 
Munich, Germany
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: liquid products
Posts: 570 since Jul 2016
Thanks Given: 1,166
Thanks Received: 1,917



SMCJB View Post
Hasn't the Oil/Gasoline/Ethanol situation really destroyed Corn demand?

Ethanol demand is down and plantings this year look to be up quite a bit, but speculators have accumulated a near record net short position, and the last time they got this short, about a year ago, their covering bid rallied corn from 350 to 450 in a matter of weeks. Indeed corn has shown several great opportunities to fade the specs over the past few years. Virtually every major high or low in spec positioning has coincided with a tradable high or low in prices. Will this time be different?

As noted already it's this big spec short position that piqued my interest, and corn has been able to carve out a modest series of higher highs and higher lows this month, probably frustrating a few of the late entrants to this short trade, but I still haven't gotten on board. The price action looks somewhat like a bear-flag on the daily and I'd like to see one last puke below 300 and some kind of a good reversal off the lows before I'd feel comfortable starting a position.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #134 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


SMCJB View Post
Hasn't the Oil/Gasoline/Ethanol situation really destroyed Corn demand?

I fully agree with Schnook.

Additionally, the Oil/Gasoline/Ethanol situation is well known for weeks, as well as the high acreage. Both facts should be priced.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #135 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
Posts: 409 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 196
Thanks Received: 876

You guys must have fairly long holds, and there is only 20 trading days left in the July Contract?

For me the July contract has given out 11 decent trades since Beginning of April, with an average 3 day hold. With such low volatility in corn, seems like such a waste to wait for a bigger move? JMHO.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #136 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


WoodyFox View Post
You guys must have fairly long holds, and there is only 20 trading days left in the July Contract?

For me the July contract has given out 11 decent trades since Beginning of April, with an average 3 day hold. With such low volatility in corn, seems like such a waste to wait for a bigger move? JMHO.

I intend to buy the December futures. The reason is that - according to MRCI data - the seasonal charts for the CN-CU and CU-CZ spreads are bearish for the next couple of weeks, whereas the seasonal charts for the outright futures are bullish. The weather issues that might come up during the next couple of weeks are concerning for the new corp.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #137 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
Posts: 409 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 196
Thanks Received: 876

Corn is at 329 and I ended up not having to average down. You longer term guys have an opinion of where it may be wanting to go? My strategy doesn't have me holding, but it exploded and I decided to take off the filters. Got some time here to make a choice! So any opinions?
WoodyFox View Post
I bought Corn at 319 last Wednesday. Looks like 316 would have been a little better.
If it keeps pulling back, I will buy another contract at 314 to average down. So Lets hope your right!

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #138 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


WoodyFox View Post
Corn is at 329 and I ended up not having to average down. You longer term guys have an opinion of where it may be wanting to go? My strategy doesn't have me holding, but it exploded and I decided to take off the filters. Got some time here to make a choice! So any opinions?

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

In my opinion, there is not much downside potential for the next couple of weeks because of the weather risk (pollination period gets closer) and bullish COT data.

How far will the corn price move upwards ? This depends on weather in July, and I am unable to make a prediction in this regard.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #139 (permalink)
 
WoodyFox's Avatar
 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Futures
Posts: 409 since May 2016
Thanks Given: 196
Thanks Received: 876


myrrdin View Post
In my opinion, there is not much downside potential for the next couple of weeks because of the weather risk (pollination period gets closer) and bullish COT data.

How far will the corn price move upwards ? This depends on weather in July, and I am unable to make a prediction in this regard.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Thanks @myrrdin ...always nice to get some other perspectives. I went ahead and got out near 328 and that was well ahead of my strategy, so win win. I will wait for the next one.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #140 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,381
Thanks Received: 10,205


No opinion, just passing along information. Gather the COT report released Friday found large hedge Funds increasing their position on corn. The Funds added 28,824 short positions for the week ending May 26, growing their position as a net seller of corn to 214,575 contracts.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on October 5, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts