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Grains & Beans

  #161 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
Munich, Germany
 
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Today's WASDE report could yield some additional clues about how the market is positioned. I'm not terribly well versed in the grains market fundamentals, so I would love to hear other traders' interpretations, but as of right now I get the impression that most traders anticipate that the report will again be bearish for corn, with estimates of a large and healthy crop producing a significant end of year surplus.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

https://www.agweb.com/article/what-watch-june-wasde-report

But with bearish news already widely anticipated and speculators heavily short the market, it seems to me that additional near-term downside to prices might be somewhat limited. Because who is going to sell if everyone is already short?

And how would the market react if the report is slightly less bearish than expected?

Again based on the positioning data I feel like there could be an asymmetry here. We'll find out in a few hours. By the end of the day, based on the reaction, I expect that I will most likely either be stopped out of my small long, or will have increased my position.

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  #162 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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I got out at 329.50. Moving on to September Contract.

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  #163 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Schnook View Post
Today's WASDE report could yield some additional clues about how the market is positioned. I'm not terribly well versed in the grains market fundamentals, so I would love to hear other traders' interpretations, but as of right now I get the impression that most traders anticipate that the report will again be bearish for corn, with estimates of a large and healthy crop producing a significant end of year surplus.

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

https://www.agweb.com/article/what-watch-june-wasde-report

But with bearish news already widely anticipated and speculators heavily short the market, it seems to me that additional near-term downside to prices might be somewhat limited. Because who is going to sell if everyone is already short?

And how would the market react if the report is slightly less bearish than expected?

Again based on the positioning data I feel like there could be an asymmetry here. We'll find out in a few hours. By the end of the day, based on the reaction, I expect that I will most likely either be stopped out of my small long, or will have increased my position.

We are back in a pure weather market. COT data is bullish, and any changing of the forecast towards drier weather will result in higher prices. I do not expect extreme price movements as soil seems to be ok in many regions.

Bet regards, Myrrdin

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  #164 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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@WoodyFox have you considered creating a journal?

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  #165 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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SMCJB View Post
@WoodyFox have you considered creating a journal?

Not the greatest at it, and I like to spend my free time developing new strategies. I'm also a better learner from watching and listening to others.

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  #166 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
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Bigger institutions finally showed their presence last night in September corn Futures. Mostly Sells. Be nice to get some action rolling. Its been a slow start for this rollover?

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  #167 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
Munich, Germany
 
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Yeah it's been trading heavy. Feels like it wants lower.

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  #168 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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Well it did go lower, and now we're up 12 cents from Friday's 316 lows on this:

"On Monday, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report that shows U.S. farmers have seen their corn crops improve.

In its report, the USDA estimates the corn good/excellent rating at 72%, up from 71% a week ago." ( link)

Unless there's some other news out there that I missed?

Either way it feels squeezy to me. This is how markets behave when every damn speculator, hedge fund and CTA on the planet is short.

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  #169 (permalink)
 
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 WoodyFox 
Columbus, Ohio
 
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Schnook View Post
Well it did go lower, and now we're up 12 cents from Friday's 316 lows on this:

"On Monday, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report that shows U.S. farmers have seen their corn crops improve.

In its report, the USDA estimates the corn good/excellent rating at 72%, up from 71% a week ago." ( link)

Unless there's some other news out there that I missed?

Either way it feels squeezy to me. This is how markets behave when every damn speculator, hedge fund and CTA on the planet is short.

Yes, definitely. The iceberg orders coming in are not all that clear. Although they did show a little more long starting at 10 AM. My strategy has a short order placed at 325. It will only enter if large volume shorts start printing. It will be looking for an average 3 day hold and have a initial target near 318. Sure would be nice to get the ball rolling soon.

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  #170 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
Munich, Germany
 
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The squeeze is on. All those specs who shorted corn below 330 are definitely sweating now.

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