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Grains & Beans


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Grains & Beans

  #181 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Schnook View Post
USDA was forecasting a record corn crop of over 15.2 bn bushels as September corn tested the low 300s. This week's storm has now been estimated to have damaged or destroyed anywhere from 200-400 million bushels across Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Not huge, in the grand scheme of things, but enough to send prices back up into the 325 area.

Again, my general thought had been that markets were fully pricing in record crops and leaving very little margin for error, creating a bit of a risk asymmetry going into the fall harvest.

Large speculators, who had covered the bulk of their shorts in June, reloaded some shorts again last week, leaving a total net short position of nearly 150,000 contracts, the equivalent of 750 million bushels.

I used yesterday's rally to lighten up my position at levels close to where I originally bought them but am tempted to add back in the mid teens if we get there (330 area on the dec contract). At this point I believe that the lows are probably in for this cycle.

On the one hand, there are good reasons to believe that the lows are in for corn. On the other hand, it would be very early in the year. Anyway, I foresee no large movements in the corn price for the next couple of weeks, and, thus, do not hold a position.

On Sunday, there will be a meeting between representatives of the US and China. Depending on the outcome, corn price might e strong or weak.

Have a nice weekend !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #182 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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Specs have officially covered their shorts in corn and are now marginally long. I have, as of this morning, taken more profits on my position but still have one little contract left, which I'll hold onto for just a bit longer as the daily and weekly trend remains higher.

Meanwhile, specs are getting quite long soybeans, which might be setting up a tradable positioning imbalance going into the harvest. Not doing anything yet, but watching it a bit more closely for potential opportunties on the short side.

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  #183 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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Specs are now pretty long corn, and I am officially flat. I profited on my swing positions but the story has played out. On to the next trade...

Could it be beans? Specs and managed money are very long, which may provide an opportunity on the short side, but I haven't done anything yet and will allow the price action and broader supply / demand considerations to inform my decision. We will see...

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  #184 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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My current trades in the in the grains are the KWH-WH, which I entered and exited several times in more than a year. I took profits on 25 % at 61.25 a couple of days ago.

And the CH-WH, which I entered a few days ago at -188. The CH-WH is a seasonal trade, recommended by MRCI from early October until end of the year. S&D data looks to support this trade in 2020, COT data also looks a bit favourable.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #185 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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Officially short beans. One contract Started as a scalp from 1061.25 and will manage risk fairly tightly (because that's how I roll) but may give it a little more room to run, and may also add, depending on how things play out today.


Like my corn trade earlier this year, the rationale is informed primarily by positioning, sentiment, and overall price action.



On the 30 minute chart (above) we could have the makings of a failed high / bull trap.

Again, we'll see how this plays out throughout the session but for now I like it.

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  #186 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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myrrdin View Post
My current trades in the in the grains are the KWH-WH, which I entered and exited several times in more than a year. I took profits on 25 % at 61.25 a couple of days ago.

And the CH-WH, which I entered a few days ago at -188. The CH-WH is a seasonal trade, recommended by MRCI from early October until end of the year. S&D data looks to support this trade in 2020, COT data also looks a bit favourable.

Best regards, Myrrdin

After being stopped out quickly on my CH-WH spread, my only position in the grains is the KWH-WH. I took profit on 25 % just above 60 c, and will take profit on the next 25 % above 50 c.

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  #187 (permalink)
 
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 Kruger 
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myrrdin View Post
After being stopped out quickly on my CH-WH spread, my only position in the grains is the KWH-WH. I took profit on 25 % just above 60 c, and will take profit on the next 25 % above 50 c.

Would you consider re-entering CH-WH again? It appears to be climbing after the down trend

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  #188 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Kruger View Post
Would you consider re-entering CH-WH again? It appears to be climbing after the down trend

No, first W would have to show a top.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #189 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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Today at 11 am (Chicago Time) or 6 pm (Central European Time) USDA will pubaccordingly.lish its monthly report. I suggest to keep position sizes moderate.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #190 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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myrrdin View Post
Today at 11 am (Chicago Time) or 6 pm (Central European Time) USDA will pubaccordingly.lish its monthly report. I suggest to keep position sizes moderate.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Yes, thank you, I am flat. I will consider re-entering after the report but only interested in selling weakness.

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Last Updated on October 5, 2022


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