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Grains & Beans

  #211 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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For the European traders:

Trading hours in the US begin 1 hour earlier for 1 week because of the change to Winter Time in Europe. Eg. stock market in New York will open at 2.30 pm Central European Time.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #212 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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To my European friends: Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US, and there will be no trading of Grains, Beans and Meats.

To my American friends: Happy Thanksgiving !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #213 (permalink)
fukfernando
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Somewhat ironic that there's no trading of commodities on thanksgiving

With that said, Happy Thanksgiving!

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  #214 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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I have been asked about educational materials regarding grains & beans.

I get a lot of information from the daily Hightower Report. They write a lot about supply and demand, discuss various reports, talk about COT data and show important developments regarding weather on a daily base.

There are brokers who give excellent information, some only to their customers, and others free to everybody. You might want to choose such broker. I was customer of RJO, where Richard Feltes gave excellent daily information about grains and beans to customers only. I still read reports on grains and beans by Daniels Trading. ( I had to leave US brokers some years ago as there reporting does not comply with Austrian tax law.)

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #215 (permalink)
 
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 Schnook 
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I recently stumbled upon another excellent resource for grains market commentary and analysis, from Benson Quinn Commodities. The commentaries are distributed via email, and if anyone is interested you can sign up here: https://www.bqci.com/fccp-bqci-commentary-signup-18990

Meanwhile today's WASDE was a little less bullish than expected. I haven't done much in the grains markets lately, as the broader trend and supply/demand fundamentals lean bullish, while speculator positioning looks excessively long.

Charts maybe starting to turn less bullish though, with beans unable to regain their January high and corn rejecting 570s on the daily. Are the highs in, or will China surprise us with more aggressive buying?

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  #216 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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I know this is kind of out of nowhere, but anybody have any opinions on the Soybean Jan-Mar Spread? Seems to be trading at very elevated levels while spreads like Nov-Jan and Mar-May are trading closer to historical levels.

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  #217 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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SMCJB View Post
I know this is kind of out of nowhere, but anybody have any opinions on the Soybean Jan-Mar Spread? Seems to be trading at very elevated levels while spreads like Nov-Jan and Mar-May are trading closer to historical levels.

I have no idea why this happens.

But: If you have a look at the longterm charts (1983 - 2021), you see that the Nov-Jan was above 20c 1 x, the Jan-Mar 7 x, and the Mar - May 6 x. Although the number of crossings above 20 c is about the same for the last two spreads, they often happened in different years. The Mar - May crossed 20 c never since 2013, the Jan - Mar crossed 20 c in three years since then.

Whereas the November contract has a special importance as the first new crop contract, I do not find a good reason for the difference between the other two spreads.

Just an idea: The May contract is strongly influenced by the South American crop, perhaps this makes a difference.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #218 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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I started building a position in the short WN22-WN23 today just above 40 c.

This wheat spread moved above 50 c only 4 times since 1983, only once there was a strong up move before the end of the planting year.

The crop is far away from being planted, and in regular years this spread moves below zero, often to the region of -50 c.

Depending on the weather, the wheat price might move upwards. The highest price of the spread since 1983 during the year of planting was approx. 75 c. I intend to build the full position between 40 and 60 c, and will through in the towel at a close above 75 c.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #219 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Finally enabled CBOT data, a $120/month cost for me, and did my first ever Ags trade*. While I enjoy discussing trades and ideas I generally avoid discussing specific trades for several reasons** but for this I am going to make an exception as much to illustrate the types of things I do as anything else***. So today I bought the Soybean XFHK Double Fly (-35.25), sold the Soybean FHKN Double Fly (11.50) and sold the Soybean FHK Fly (15.75). I expect the margin requirements for these positions to be $935, $935 and $467.50 respectively. I'm going to be cautious as I get more comfortable but I think profit targets of 10c, 7.5 and 7.5c are conservative which equates to $500, $375 and $375 respectively. So total margin of around $2300 with a profit target of $1250 per unit. Each unit involves 16 futures so make your own commission assumptions. I looked at 3 different ways to enter the position and decided that trading the exchange listed butterflies XFH, FHK and HKN seemed to offer the best execution opportunities. While that might seem obvious it is definitely not always the case especially with double flys.

* First ever discretionary SOYBEAN trade. Excludes CTAs and a signal system that I paid for (and traded) decades ago.
** On top of not wanting to be seen as endorsing any particular trade a major reason is I tend to manage trades on a portfolio basis so I might do things differently because of the effect on the portfolio rather than the individual trade. As such what is best for me and for somebody else may be different.
*** While I do intend to update how this trade goes, I probably will not report other specific trades.

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  #220 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Just looked at these on IB and could not find the exchange fly. had to add the legs into the combo and margin was almost double


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