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Grains & Beans

  #281 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Hiraphor View Post
If Dec22 was sanctioned but Mar23 wasn't then sure that would explain the discount, but I would find that hard to believe. Harvests happen in July so with no new supply coming between Dec and March I'm really confused by why it would blow out.. Not sure if this is a really good trade or if I'm being an idiot haha

I also wonder if it could have been a market participant blowing up/stopping out which caused it to drag this low... I feel like this is either the trade of the year or I must be really missing something

I looked at the WZ22-WH23 again.

A reason for the March contract being much cheaper could be the fact that the crop of the Southern Hemisphere will enter the market after expiration of the December contract.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #282 (permalink)
 
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 Kruger 
Cape Town South Africa
 
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What's the view on Red Hard Wheat, Buy KEZ2 & Sell KEK2?

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  #283 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Kruger View Post
What's the view on Red Hard Wheat, Buy KEZ2 & Sell KEK2?

I stay away from speculation if the war in Ukraine will end today via a miracle or will stay for a very long time. I am unable to make a qualified guess.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #284 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
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SMCJB View Post
Wheat going to be limit up again, 3rd day in a row, +130 to 1424.

This is how crazy markets are right now...

And less than 48 hours later, the price is locked at daily low limit of 1201.5.

Since high of 1363.5 on the evening of 3/7 (may contract), the price has fallen $7,600 per contract, or 12%.


And that huge drop pales in comparison to energies like Heating Oil, which has dropped 18.8% TODAY ($35K per contract).


Insane times!

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  #285 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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kevinkdog View Post
This is how crazy markets are right now...

And less than 48 hours later, the price is locked at daily low limit of 1201.5.

Since high of 1363.5 on the evening of 3/7 (may contract), the price has fallen $7,600 per contract, or 12%.


And that huge drop pales in comparison to energies like Heating Oil, which has dropped 18.8% TODAY ($35K per contract).


Insane times!

In many years, I like trading the RB-HO spread at this time of the year. Looking at the huge moves yesterday and today, I am glad I do not hold a position.

Currently, the only position I hold in the commodities is a very small long term coffee position (only 1 future).

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #286 (permalink)
Hiraphor
London, UK
 
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I agree - the wheat july-sep spread blew out to -180 at one point when usually it is never below 0. Making a trade now has to be small size, or you risk your entire account getting liquidated. Extremely dangerous times for mean reversion. A bad harvest could cause structure to collapse again.

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  #287 (permalink)
 augustco 
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Thought the following link might be interesting for seasonal traders:
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/spear/

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  #288 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
Houston TX
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WSJ :- A Market Mystery: The ?Wheat Whale? That Came Out of Nowhere
Who was behind the surge of trading in wheat futures last month? Some point to a group of Reddit users who mobbed an E.T.F. offering exposure to the wheat market.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/business/wheat-market-russia-ukraine-reddit.html

Shares of the E.T.F. had been turning over at a daily volume of 300,000 to 500,000 for months. On March 4, their daily trading volume hit 27 million shares. That day, the fund took in $183 million; it had never before taken in more than $35 million in a single day. Its price, which was just over $8 on Feb. 25, peaked at $12.28 on March 7.

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  #289 (permalink)
mosalem2003
Toronto
 
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I would like to investigate being focused in grains, beans and see feasibility vs my current focus on equities and treasuries.
The motivation is that it's a real commodity that really has a benefit for our living, the quality of market participants as mainly commercials and hedgers.
I would like to get from the market experts here about the important resources to know about this market to be a specialist. References, forums, related websites, trade strategies, seasonality, outright vs spread vs Options trading, etc.

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  #290 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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mosalem2003 View Post
I would like to investigate being focused in grains, beans and see feasibility vs my current focus on equities and treasuries.
The motivation is that it's a real commodity that really has a benefit for our living, the quality of market participants as mainly commercials and hedgers.
I would like to get from the market experts here about the important resources to know about this market to be a specialist. References, forums, related websites, trade strategies, seasonality, outright vs spread vs Options trading, etc.

Regarding grains & beans I am currently using the following resources:

The Hightower Report (Fundamentals),
MRCI (Seasonals),
Wellenreiter (COT).

Wellenreiter is a German service, which I mainly use for other purposes. I was a customer of Floyd Upperman regarding COT data for some years, who prepares these data in a very helpful manner.

There are brokers that have expertise in trading grains and beans. I worked with RJO for some years, who have excellent reports on grains and beans. There might be others as well.

Currently, I do not trade grains and beans. The price movements are strongly correlated to the war in Ukraine, and I am unable to forecast these events.

Good luck !

Best regards, Myrrdin

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Last Updated on October 5, 2022


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