NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Grains & Beans


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 125 posts (152 thanks)
    2. looks_two WoodyFox with 40 posts (33 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 36 posts (53 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Schnook with 31 posts (43 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 1.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Schnook with 1.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 myrrdin with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 WoodyFox with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 69,154 views
    2. thumb_up 338 thanks given
    3. group 49 followers
    1. forum 294 posts
    2. attach_file 44 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Grains & Beans

  #21 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651

I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
MC PL editor upgrade
MultiCharts
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
The choice of instruments to trade
Psychology and Money Management
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Diary of a simple price action trader
20 thanks
My NQ Trading Journal
19 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
17 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
13 thanks
Daytrading ES & NQ
9 thanks
  #22 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


myrrdin View Post
I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Index fund rebalancing starting Jan 9th will trigger 60-100K new corn longs. Interesting to note that index funds reduced corn longs in Friday’s CFTC report (corn –down 20K contracts). This should help the spread, as no such rebalancing should happen for soybeans.

The spread has reached the zone where it traded from end of June until early November. Thus, I use a close stop, and intend to close or reduce the position before the USDA report on January 12th.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651



myrrdin View Post
I am still holding the 5*CZ-2*SX spread and the KWH-WH spread. Nothing regarding the fundamentals has changed significantly.

January 12th the next important USDA report on grains and beans will be published. The January report is well known for surprizes.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Liquidated both CBOT spreads today to avoid the risk of an unfavourable USDA report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #24 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


myrrdin View Post
Liquidated both CBOT spreads today to avoid the risk of an unfavourable USDA report.

Best regards, Myrrdin

The 5*CZ-2*SX is now just below -100. Looks like a good place to re-enter.

The KWH-WH has moved up to above 16. I intend to wait for a set-back to re-enter.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651

Today (11 am Chicago Time, 18.00 Central European Time) the USDA report will be published. I do not expect it to be a big market mover for grains & beans. But you never know - these reports can include surprizes ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,381
Thanks Received: 10,205

WSJ :- The Next American Farm Bust Is Upon Us

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-american-farm-bust-is-upon-us-1486572488

Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


myrrdin View Post
The 5*CZ-2*SX is now just below -100. Looks like a good place to re-enter.

The KWH-WH has moved up to above 16. I intend to wait for a set-back to re-enter.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I am still holding a position in the 5*CZ-2*SX spread, and I am still optimistic that it will move above 0 within the next couple of months (currently -53 c).

I re-entered the KW-W, and will liquidate it just below 20.

The arguments regarding these trades posted some time ago are still valid.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #28 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,048 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,381
Thanks Received: 10,205

Industry experts, David Hightower and Joe Vaclavik, discuss the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings Report to be published on 31 March 2017.
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/market-movers-usda-quarterly-report.html

Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,687
Thanks Received: 2,651


myrrdin View Post
I am still holding a position in the 5*CZ-2*SX spread, and I am still optimistic that it will move above 0 within the next couple of months (currently -53 c).

I re-entered the KW-W, and will liquidate it just below 20.

The arguments regarding these trades posted some time ago are still valid.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I was stopped out of the KW-W with a loss. There was a lot of rain in the KW area, that helped to improve quality of KW significantly.

I intend to liquidate the 5*CZ-2*SX spread early next week. The spread has moved up nicely, and is now significantly above 0. This trade, which I hold for several months and which currently shows a significant profit, is a good example that it is easier for me to beat the market longterm than shortterm.

I intend to reduce my trading of grains in the coming months, as we enter a weather market.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #30 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360


since stocks/usage is pretty high the spread has narrowed and could even go negative..i..e July less than Nov.
if there is a weather concern.. this might rise
am i reading this right?

trying to make sense of the past Hightower reports

https://www.hightowerreport.com/2014/04/jul-nov-soybean-spread-out-of-whack-with-the-fundamentals/

and

https://www.hightowerreport.com/2013/04/upside-potential-for-julynovember-soybean-spread/

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on October 5, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts