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Grains & Beans

  #61 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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maxinger View Post
no problem for not publishing the seasonal charts.

I see that you long the CZ18 - C Z19 spread.
I see that historic low for this spread was negative 18.
And you probably long around negative 16.
Seems like you got a good price. Am I right?

How long do you expect to hold on to this trade?

I had several buy orders from 12.5 downwards. Was a bit early, but you never know.

I intend to hold this spread longterm through the South American growing season. In case La Nina gets reality and there is severe dryness in Brazil, the spread should move upwards strongly. If not, it should still make some money, according to the seasonals.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #62 (permalink)
 
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 CobblersAwls 
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An interesting piece from Kevin Muir on grains in the second half of his post. The overall inflation theme creeping into markets could see the grain market get some bids.

The Macro Tourist | IT'S NOT TOO LATE

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  #63 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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The next USDA Report will be published on October, 12th. The October Report is among the more important reports as the first (more or less) reliable figures for the crop size will be published. I suggest to keep lot sizes small as this report can be a market mover.

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  #64 (permalink)
 manuel999 
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According to reuters, there was damage to Soybean crop due to the hurricanes.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-us-soybeans/chinas-u-s-soybean-imports-face-delays-as-hurricanes-hit-crop-quality-idUSKCN1C90DA

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  #65 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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I am bullish for the next couple of months as long as there is a high probability for La Nina to occur. Soil in Brazil already is dry, and further dryness will cause a relatively small crop. Remember: Brazil supplies a significant share of the world-wide crop.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #66 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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I currently hold the following positions in grains & beans:

KWN-WN
Longterm trade.
Seasonality is favourable according to MRCI data.

KWZ-MWZ
Longterm trade.
Last year there were problems regarding Minneapolis Wheat. The spread for the next crop looks severely overvalued. It is important to keep lot size small as MW price can move upwards severely.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #67 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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I intend to buy the SN-SX spread.

Seasonals look positive for the next couple of months.
Weather is hard to predict and can influence the crop severely.

Problem: In case weather is fine for the crop the spread will move further to the downside, as it did in 2017.

I will set up this trade via options, eg. buying the SN C1000 and selling the short-dated SX C1000, expiring at the same time as the SN call. This spread is currently sold for 6 c.

In case the spread moves downwards both options should expire worthless. Thus the risk is small.

As always questions and comments are highly welcome.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #68 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Looks like this certainly goes up in July but many times the rally starts late April to early June...unless u think due to weather move will be early


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  #69 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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jokertrader View Post
Looks like this certainly goes up in July but many times the rally starts late April to early June...unless u think due to weather move will be early


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This is why I entered this trade via options. The maximum loss is apporx. 6 c at expiry, as long as SX stays below SN or SX stays below 1000.

The probability pf the SX moving upwards and the SN downwards from here seems to be very low.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #70 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
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Act to George angell, buying Chicago wheat and selling Kansas wheat March 1 and liquidating June 1 is the trade the examples from the book real time commodity spreads are all from 70s and 80s .. @myrrdin looks like u have the opp trade unless I am totally wrong


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