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Commodity fundamentals


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Commodity fundamentals

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  #1 (permalink)
everton
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Hi, I am studying about Gold Futures and Crude Oil Futures. Is there a book or website that provides a basement(knowledge) on the fundamentals of these commodities? For example, what influences the price of crude oil and gold.

Thanks
Everton

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Re: Crude, not sure there's a single website I would recommend, especally since 'Crude Fundamentals' is a very wide category. Have you looked at the Crude Oil thread here

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 myrrdin 
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everton View Post
Hi, I am studying about Gold Futures and Crude Oil Futures. Is there a book or website that provides a basement(knowledge) on the fundamentals of these commodities? For example, what influences the price of crude oil and gold.

Thanks
Everton

For me as a trader of fundamentals Gold is very difficult to trade. There are numerous influences on the Gold price, and I doubt that it does make sense to trade Gold as a fundamental and retail trader. There are easier commodities in my opinion. (Sorry - I do not know a reliable source for fundamentals of Gold.)

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everton
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myrrdin View Post
For me as a trader of fundamentals Gold is very difficult to trade. There are numerous influences on the Gold price, and I doubt that it does make sense to trade Gold as a fundamental and retail trader. There are easier commodities in my opinion. (Sorry - I do not know a reliable source for fundamentals of Gold.)
Best regards, Myrrdin

Hi Myrrdin, thnaks by reply. What are the easiest commodities to trade?

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Everton

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 myrrdin 
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Hi Myrrdin, thnaks by reply. What are the easiest commodities to trade?

Thanks
Everton

The first thing is that you have to be interested in this commodity. You will spend a lot of time with them. For me the most interesting commodities are agricultures - but this is a personal matter.

You could also have a look at your profession and at the country you live in. You live in Brazil, and a lot of soybeans, corn and coffee is grown in your country. This might give you an edge.

Generally, there is a lot of information regarding corn, wheat and soybeans around. Supply & Demand, seasonals, and COT data are easy to obtain. Volume is large, thus you will get good fills on Futures and Options. They grow in many countries, and this makes them less prone to sudden large moves.

The same is probably true regarding crude oil, but there can be large moves in case of terrorist attacks etc.

Natural gas still is a rather local US market, although it is now transported around the world for some years. NG price mainly depends on temperatures in the US.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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pihadave
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myrrdin View Post
The first thing is that you have to be interested in this commodity. You will spend a lot of time with them. For me the most interesting commodities are agricultures - but this is a personal matter.

You could also have a look at your profession and at the country you live in. You live in Brazil, and a lot of soybeans, corn and coffee is grown in your country. This might give you an edge.

Generally, there is a lot of information regarding corn, wheat and soybeans around. Supply & Demand, seasonals, and COT data are easy to obtain. Volume is large, thus you will get good fills on Futures and Options. They grow in many countries, and this makes them less prone to sudden large moves.

The same is probably true regarding crude oil, but there can be large moves in case of terrorist attacks etc.

Natural gas still is a rather local US market, although it is now transported around the world for some years. NG price mainly depends on temperatures in the US.

Best regards, Myrrdin

This just made so many things clear for me.. I'm switching from FX to commodities as I find them more interesting and I'm also finding FX too.. 'messy'.

What I'm struggling with though is where to find solid and legitimate sources of information. Bloomberg? Reuters? For example, I was looking into Crude and found almost a 50/50 split of bullish/bearish information..

I found gold easiest in terms of market hours (I'm in New Zealand), but I agree that there's many factors that influence it. Too many times I've been stopped out from random swings. Trading gold almost feels like trading FX.

I want to focus on other metals (copper/platinum/palladium) and also Agri's (cocoa, coffee, sugar, orange juice).

Would love any info you could give on where to start, or at least where to find legitimate non-bs information?

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 myrrdin 
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pihadave View Post
This just made so many things clear for me.. I'm switching from FX to commodities as I find them more interesting and I'm also finding FX too.. 'messy'.

What I'm struggling with though is where to find solid and legitimate sources of information. Bloomberg? Reuters? For example, I was looking into Crude and found almost a 50/50 split of bullish/bearish information..

I found gold easiest in terms of market hours (I'm in New Zealand), but I agree that there's many factors that influence it. Too many times I've been stopped out from random swings. Trading gold almost feels like trading FX.

I want to focus on other metals (copper/platinum/palladium) and also Agri's (cocoa, coffee, sugar, orange juice).

Would love any info you could give on where to start, or at least where to find legitimate non-bs information?

You will find some free monthly information on softs from the ICE: https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/ICE_Monthly_Softs_Fast_Facts.pdf?sp...pReportId=OTQwNzY1NjI0S0
I think the author also sells more frequent and more detailed information of softs, but you have to check for details.

I do not know a good source for the "other" metals. But I doubt you will find a lot. For Palladium it is probably best to have a good contact to Mr. Putin - Russia supplies most of Palladium world-wide. I think most of Platinum is from South Africa and Russia - not easy to get reliable information from these countries as a retail trader.

Where you should start ? If you ask me: I would not start with these commodities.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
Where you should start ? If you ask me: I would not start with these commodities.

Hey @myrrdin, as always I think you give some great advice here.
If your going to to trade and hold positions for longer periods of time, I agree understanding the fundamentals is desirable.

I'm primarily an energy trader, and a statistical rather fundamental one at that. Earlier in my career though I did work and trade on desks that were extremely fundamental driven in nature. As a rule, the better your information is, the easier a commodity is to trade, but the type information you need, is difficult to come by as a retail trader. Apart from that I have found that natural gas is easier to trade than oil or electricity as it's a domestic market, less effected by outside influences/would politics and it isn't overly dominated by a few players. As such the fundamental's tend to rule in the long run. The one problem with NG is that it can move so fast and violently on weather changes, which may not ideal for the newer trader.

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Last Updated on February 28, 2017


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