NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Meats


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one myrrdin with 62 posts (86 thanks)
    2. looks_two Hiraphor with 13 posts (11 thanks)
    3. looks_3 zxcv64 with 13 posts (11 thanks)
    4. looks_4 steptank with 8 posts (6 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one SMCJB with 2.4 thanks per post
    2. looks_two myrrdin with 1.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 zxcv64 with 0.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Hiraphor with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 37,226 views
    2. thumb_up 142 thanks given
    3. group 27 followers
    1. forum 115 posts
    2. attach_file 3 attachments




 
Search this Thread

Meats

  #51 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651

1. I received information that not the entire plant of Tyson Foods was destroyed, but only part of it.

2. Currently beef packers are enjoying extremely good margins, and, thus, there is a strong incentive to produce as much meat as possible. Other producers will find ways to raise their capacities.

Thus, I think price for Live Cattle will move up again for the 2020 contracts. But they might not reacch the level of last week in the near future.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Pivot Indicator like the old SwingTemp by Big Mike
NinjaTrader
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
NexusFi Journal Challenge - May 2024
Feedback and Announcements
REcommedations for programming help
Sierra Chart
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
48 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
35 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
25 thanks
Bigger Wins or Fewer Losses?
24 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
  #52 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68

Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #53 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651



zxcv64 View Post
Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

The cattle slaughter report published today is for last week. Or do have any special information ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #54 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68


myrrdin View Post
The cattle slaughter report published today is for last week. Or do have any special information ?

Best regards, Myrrdin

I wish I did. I read it in the Hightower report. They mentioned figures for the first 3 days of this week, and compared them to the same period last week.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #55 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68

I opened the HEV19-HEZ19 spread based on seasonals and my previous experience with it.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #56 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


zxcv64 View Post
I opened the HEV19-HEZ19 spread based on seasonals and my previous experience with it.

I do not hold any position in the hogs market.

In case there will be an agreement between US and China, hog prices will explode.

In case there is no such agreement, prices will com back.

As I have no idea about the plans of Mr. Trump, I stay out of hog trades.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #57 (permalink)
zxcv64
London, UK
 
Posts: 74 since Jan 2018
Thanks Given: 162
Thanks Received: 68


myrrdin View Post

In case there will be an agreement between US and China, hog prices will explode.

In case there is no such agreement, prices will com back.

As I have no idea about the plans of Mr. Trump, I stay out of hog trades.

Yes, I agree with this. It's not just hogs, but the equities also seem to be under the magic spell of a Trump tweet. The last 2-3 weeks have a been a roller-coaster for me as I trade a lot of SPX. Wide daily moves are now common place. It rose 80 points between Wed/Thur this week, causing me a lot of damage. One the one hand, I want to be careful of the Trump/China trade war, and on the other, no one really know how long this trade war will go on - it's been like this for around a year, and there seems to be no end-date. On a bigger picture, the US elections next year will be on the minds of both Trump and China, and I'm sure both parties will want to look like they have 'won' the war as the election fever is building up. This cat-and-mouse game could go on for a long while.

Meanwhile, I need to build up more trading experiences in commodities so am doing my trades on a small scale.

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #58 (permalink)
 
SMCJB's Avatar
 SMCJB 
Houston TX
Legendary Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TT and Stellar
Broker: Advantage Futures
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,207

First there was China, then North Korea, and potentially South Korea as well.
All of whose primary protein intake is Pork!

Bloomberg : Kim Jong Un May Be Hiding a Hog Apocalypse From the World

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-12/kim-jong-un-may-be-hiding-a-hog-apocalypse-from-the-world

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #59 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


zxcv64 View Post
Thanks.

From what I have been reading, the number of cattle slaughtered this week isn't too much lower than what were slaughtered last week, so the reaction to the Tyson fire seems to have been overdone.

With this is mind, I went long the LEG20 contract today.

The Tyson plant should be in full operation early January. COT data still is bullish in spite of the strong move upwards of the cattle price.

I still hold a long position in LCG.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #60 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TWS
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Commodities
Posts: 1,938 since Nov 2014
Thanks Given: 3,688
Thanks Received: 2,651


Meats are difficult to trade currently because of the uncertainties regarding purchases of the Chinese. In my opinion, downwards moves are overdone now. Thus, I entered the following positions:

-LH P62,
LCJ-LCM,
LCQ.

I suggest to keep position size very limited.

Best regards, Myrrdin

Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on March 15, 2022


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts