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Metals

  #71 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Real Vision has done some very interesting interviews on Uranium which are available on YouTube. The interviewee (Adam Rodman) has been very bullish Uranium for several years. I believe in one of them (the oldest?) they actually discuss ways to get exposure to Uranium.
[yt]https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=real+vision+uranium[/yt]

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  #72 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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I posted it already at the wallstreetbets dedicated forum in this site:
In case you don't know Silver is also concerned and we can already see the results on the future price since yesterday. I was participating before in the Precious Metals (since 2016) and continue doing so more determined than ever with ETF physical Silver and Gold as well as with micro futures Silver and Futures Platinum that I plan to roll over and with GDX and GDXJ...
#silvershortsqueeze
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l6novm/the_real_dd_on_slv_the_worlds_biggest_short/

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  #73 (permalink)
BertV
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I saw some talk about AG being on their radar... haven't personally researched it but my buddy has been telling me for near 11 years silver is going to $60. Hope he is finally right I am getting tired of the same story

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  #74 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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https://kingworldnews.com/reddit-traders-target-silver-man-who-oversees-nearly-160-billion-says-silver-may-be-poised-to-skyrocket/
https://kingworldnews.com/no-silver-liquidity-in-london-this-could-destabilize-all-gold-silver-contracts/

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  #75 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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They'll need to buy a lot of Silver to squeeze that market! Still nice 10% move in 2 days. Be careful with Silver, it is very volatile, in fact I believe he has the highest ATR of any US futures contract. Three weeks ago today, Friday 8th, it had a $2.80 daily range which was equal to a 10.9% move in 1 day! $28 is the short term high (6-Jan) $30.35 is medium term high (August)

Edit: and remember SI (5000 oz) and SIL (1000oz - micro) are both physically settled, QI (2500oz eMini) is financially settled

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  #76 (permalink)
Sagal
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SMCJB View Post
They'll need to buy a lot of Silver to squeeze that market! Still nice 10% move in 2 days. Be careful with Silver, it is very volatile, in fact I believe he has the highest ATR of any US futures contract. Three weeks ago today, Friday 8th, it had a $2.80 daily range which was equal to a 10.9% move in 1 day! $28 is the short term high (6-Jan) $30.35 is medium term high (August)

Edit: and remember SI (5000 oz) and SIL (1000oz - micro) are both physically settled, QI (2500oz eMini) is financially settled

Thanks SMCJB. You have the data on what it would take to squeeze the short Silver on one of the earliest link
Concerning physically settled (Settles 12:25p.m) so at least 3 hours ahead: with all good brokers you have a First Notice Day for futures or micro futures or CFD contract where it is the last day you should sell at the latest or where the good broker will close your position anyway
FND contract March SIH21 is 26 Feb 2021 and for SIK21 it is 30 April 2021
Or did I miss your point?

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  #77 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Agree. Jan expired this week. There is a Feb21 contract but nobody trades it unless you want to go to delivery - the first notice day on Febs was also this week. So yes, we have a month before you need to worry about delivery on the March contract, which is by far the most liquid contract. (92.5% of COMEX Silver volume was in March yesterday).

Re: Silver Stocks I will try and look. Not sure if the exchange publishes warehouse stock data, as anything in a warehouse is outside of the exchange system. Will see.

Wish Gold would jump 10%. Own a lot more Gold than I do Silver. As I type Bitcoin is also up 14%! (And platinum nearly 4%)

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  #78 (permalink)
Sagal
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SMCJB View Post
Agree. Jan expired this week. There is a Feb21 contract but nobody trades it unless you want to go to delivery - the first notice day on Febs was also this week. So yes, we have a month before you need to worry about delivery on the March contract, which is by far the most liquid contract. (92.5% of COMEX Silver volume was in March yesterday).

Re: Silver Stocks I will try and look. Not sure if the exchange publishes warehouse stock data, as anything in a warehouse is outside of the exchange system. Will see.

Wish Gold would jump 10%. Own a lot more Gold than I do Silver. As I type Bitcoin is also up 14%! (And platinum nearly 4%)

If you have a look to let's say COMEX or Barchart, you will notice that some contracts (depending on the commodities) have low volume. For this reasons there are contracts I do not even have a look at
eg SIG21 (Jan): yesterday's volume: 32 contracts
SIH21 (March, FND 28 Feb) the one I'm into, yesterday's volume: 182496 contracts
SIJ21 (April): ...0 contract
SIK21 (May) the one I will roll over to FND 'see previous mail): yesterday's volume: 10416
etc

By replying to Mike on the main topic of wallstreetsbets, I read again the content of in my first link: 'thehappyhawaiian" was saying:
"- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery"

"Part of the problem"? On this part I totally disagree. I am in Europe sure, but in Europe, physical delivery of commodities traded for an individual trader (not a professional one) are something from the past. It does not happen anymore. I said it earlier. Each one has to check the information from his/her own broker but usually they close automatically your opened position the FND or sometimes a couple of day earlier (it happened for some specific WTI contracts in February!!!).
2nd I completely disagree with this quote as well, simply because the more long contracts of futures or micro futures are bought, the higher the price will go and the higher the pressure will go for squeezing the shorts....they will have to close their positions by buying long contracts or the holder of naked call options will have as well to buy long positions to balance their losses.

If someone still understood it differently after this obvious rationale, please explain me...
I posted on the other topic but you can see that there is room on the COT for more net positive contracts for managed funds and more net negative contracts for commercial just in comparison to one year ago... Note: the other point in red the open interest. It is relatively low, which means that there is room for the OI to go much higher which will probably be related in this case with increase interest and higher prices...

SMJB for the physical ETF what I look at is: physical "redeemable" if it is the correct term, I have to check: meaning if you are rich enough the possibility of getting back the bars of gold or silvers on demand etc. If you are not rich enough the possibility that this can happen is anyway a good sign. For me this is also part of the definition of physical. 2nd the custodian part 3rd the reputation of the custodian. As I said I am in Europe so I didn't investigate some other place, but some of custodian banks have their vaults in Switzerland or London. I prefer where it is in Switzerland. My physical ETF are managed by ZKB Zurich Kantonal Bank (originally ETFs from Julius Baer bank). So do you research...

PS I am in the same situation than you from the 50% of my portfolio allocated in Precious Metals, I own more gold (approx 50%) than silver (approx 29%) and Gold Miners (21%) in my portfolio. 10% of my portfolio is indirectly linked to mainly Copper but of course other metals or PM (ETF basic resources , Anglo American and Rio Tinto).
For Platinum, currently I trade only with Futures, I liquidated my previous physical ETF almost 2 years ago with some losses after 3 years of holding.

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  #79 (permalink)
Sagal
Strasbourg, France
 
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I like to watch the shows on commodities on this channel (still free...)
But this new post is about this one
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/reddit-investors-piling-into-silver-drive-up-prices-a-second-day-1.1556011

PS Talking about other institutions on their target price for Silver...

Quoting 
"However, Citibank has been the biggest proponent of silver. The bank said the metal could reach the price of $US40/oz silver within 6-12 months or even peak to US$50/oz-US$100/oz based on the bank’s technical analysis.
“We see the investment-led deficit in silver continuing in 2021, with the call on silver stocks driving prices up to US$30/oz over the next 3-4 months and up to US$40/oz over the next 6-12 months,” the bank analysts wrote in a note.
[B]“Since the case for silver is in part dependent on investment demand, some portion of the investment community looks at the market’s technicals. It is worth noting that the Citi FX technical team is very bullish silver, with US$50/oz a very realistic target and US$100/oz possible.”
The bank expressed its bullishness on silver following Goldman Sachs’ advice to investors to sell the USD and invest in silver instead.

Source: https://invezz.com/news/2020/11/09/heres-how-gold-oil-and-silver-prices-reacted-to-covid-19-vaccine-news/

PS2
Peter Schiff's podcast. If you want to focus on Silver and gold it is from around 26"
https://schiffradio.com/reddit-raiders-ride-silver/


PS3
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-01-29/what-will-reddit-do-silver-29-january

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  #80 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Sagal View Post
If you have a look to let's say COMEX or Barchart, you will notice that some contracts (depending on the commodities) have low volume. For this reasons there are contracts I do not even have a look at
eg SIG21 (Jan): yesterday's volume: 32 contracts
SIH21 (March, FND 28 Feb) the one I'm into, yesterday's volume: 182496 contracts
SIJ21 (April): ...0 contract
SIK21 (May) the one I will roll over to FND 'see previous mail): yesterday's volume: 10416
etc

The liguid Silver Contract Month Cycle is HKNUZ. They do list the prompt couple of months outside of that cycle but I don't know why anyone would trade them given volume and liquidity concerns.

Sagal View Post
By replying to Mike on the main topic of wallstreetsbets, I read again the content of in my first link: 'thehappyhawaiian" was saying:
"- going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery"

"Part of the problem"? On this part I totally disagree. I am in Europe sure, but in Europe, physical delivery of commodities traded for an individual trader (not a professional one) are something from the past. It does not happen anymore. I said it earlier. Each one has to check the information from his/her own broker but usually they close automatically your opened position the FND or sometimes a couple of day earlier (it happened for some specific WTI contracts in February!!!).

Going to delivery for something like currencies is easy, you just need an account for the money to come in and out of. Going to Delivery on something like Silver or Crude is a very different matter. To start with you would need to have a Warehouse Agreement (Silver) or a Cushing Storage Contract (Crude). Then you would need the ability to schedule the actual delivery. In large commodity houses, good operations people are paid extremely well, maybe not as high as traders, but not that far behind. Not as easy as you might think. Then finally most brokers don't want to touch it, even for pros/institutions. It's too much work. Also a huge negative on going to delivery is payment terms. At least in the oil markets payment terms is 15 days after delivery. So if I deliver you crude in February you pay me on March 15th. If you go to Delivery though the exchange makes BOTH SIDES post full collateral BEFORE delivery. So if I'm the buyer I have to pay 45 days earlier than I would do in a bilateral transaction, and if I'm a seller I have to post collateral when I wouldn't normally. No Thanks! That's why most deliveries are actually ADP'd (Alternative Delivery Procedure) to get the exchange out of the middle.

Sagal View Post
2nd I completely disagree with this quote as well, simply because the more long contracts of futures or micro futures are bought, the higher the price will go and the higher the pressure will go for squeezing the shorts....they will have to close their positions by buying long contracts or the holder of naked call options will have as well to buy long positions to balance their losses.

If someone still understood it differently after this obvious rationale, please explain me...
I posted on the other topic but you can see that there is room on the COT for more net positive contracts for managed funds and more net negative contracts for commercial just in comparison to one year ago... Note: the other point in red the open interest. It is relatively low, which means that there is room for the OI to go much higher which will probably be related in this case with increase interest and higher prices...

SMJB for the physical ETF what I look at is: physical "redeemable" if it is the correct term, I have to check: meaning if you are rich enough the possibility of getting back the bars of gold or silvers on demand etc. If you are not rich enough the possibility that this can happen is anyway a good sign. For me this is also part of the definition of physical. 2nd the custodian part 3rd the reputation of the custodian. As I said I am in Europe so I didn't investigate some other place, but some of custodian banks have their vaults in Switzerland or London. I prefer where it is in Switzerland. My physical ETF are managed by ZKB Zurich Kantonal Bank (originally ETFs from Julius Baer bank). So do you research...

There's lots of opinions that if you don't own the physical you don't really own it, not your keys not your coins (crypto), and lots of theories that the banks manipulate the paper markets to keep the physical markets low. I have no idea on the validity of those arguments. I'm a futures trader by profession so access to the futures is easer for me than even something like SLV or GLD, I also enjoy the leverage of futures.

For what its worth I'm also in the camp that I doubt they/WSBs/whoever would be able to squeeze Silver, but since I'm long it would pay nicely if they did!

Sagal View Post
PS I am in the same situation than you from the 50% of my portfolio allocated in Precious Metals, I own more gold (approx 50%) than silver (approx 29%) and Gold Miners (21%) in my portfolio. 10% of my portfolio is indirectly linked to mainly Copper but of course other metals or PM (ETF basic resources , Anglo American and Rio Tinto).
For Platinum, currently I trade only with Futures, I liquidated my previous physical ETF almost 2 years ago with some losses after 3 years of holding.

I have low/mid single digits % of my net worth in precious metals (notional value not margin requirement) split GC-SI-PL (no PA). Actual breakdown changes but its much heavier GC than SI or PL. Also own GDX and XME in my spec (non-investment) account. I think that these are good speculative trades but also think they are good USD hedges. (I live in US and am paid in USD)

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