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Gold vs Oil - Which One?


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Gold vs Oil - Which One?

  #11 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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SMCJB View Post
Over simplifying it a little ...

If the virus is a major problem demand goes down so Oil goes down (and other Commodities & Equities as well), and fear goes up so Gold goes up (and Bonds, Eurodollars and probably the USD and Bitcoin).

If it's a big overreaction and the virus fades out. I think it's far to think that Oil could retrace some/much/all of the $8 it's lost in the last 10 days / $5 it's lost in the last week. Similar for equities, bonds, etc

I read an interesting article about the influence of the outbreak of deseasis on the price of stock indices.

In all cases but one stock price three months after the outbreak was at the same or a higher level as before the outbreak, with the exception being HIV.

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  #12 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
I read an interesting article about the influence of the outbreak of deseasis on the price of stock indices.

In all cases but one stock price three months after the outbreak was at the same or a higher level as before the outbreak, with the exception being HIV.

I saw something similar. Worth pointing out that SARS killed less than 800 people, and as horrific as things like ebola are they were very contained to Western Africa which had very little effect on world economies. In contrast the flu kills 40,000-50,000 people a year in the US. Maybe not surprising then that in the last 12 years I think we have had just 4 down quarters. The virus's people have been scared of, in the big picture were insignificant to the ones we face every year - at least for the developed world. This one could very well be the same - but it could be different. When it comes to equities though, buying the panic is often a much better performer than selling it. If we get a big correction I for one will be a buyer. I could be completely wrong - but if I am wrong I think I will have a lot more to worry about than my stock portfolio!

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  #13 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
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SMCJB View Post
I saw something similar. Worth pointing out that SARS killed less than 800 people, and as horrific as things like ebola are they were very contained to Western Africa which had very little effect on world economies. In contrast the flu kills 40,000-50,000 people a year in the US. Maybe not surprising then that in the last 12 years I think we have had just 4 down quarters. The virus's people have been scared of, in the big picture were insignificant to the ones we face every year - at least for the developed world. This one could very well be the same - but it could be different. When it comes to equities though, buying the panic is often a much better performer than selling it. If we get a big correction I for one will be a buyer. I could be completely wrong - but if I am wrong I think I will have a lot more to worry about than my stock portfolio!

There are significant differences between the flu on the one side and SARS / Corona Virus on the other side. Flu kills significantly more people, but most of them are at a high age, and not involved in the economic processes. There are no special measures against the flu, eg. closing down of factories, travel restrictions etc. Thus, flu does not influence the indices significantly.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #14 (permalink)
pha777
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This flu is a much bigger threat than before. I come from Taiwan. I can't buy the musk at every pharmacy market.
Everyone is nervous.

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 SMCJB 
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myrrdin View Post
There are significant differences between the flu on the one side and SARS / Corona Virus on the other side. Flu kills significantly more people, but most of them are at a high age, and not involved in the economic processes. There are no special measures against the flu, eg. closing down of factories, travel restrictions etc. Thus, flu does not influence the indices significantly.

This weeks Macrovoices Podcast (#204) with Erik Townsend was a double interview. The first interview was with Julian Brigden from MI2 partners. He is a Macro trader/analyst and I'm a big fan - and to be honest the reason I was listening to the podcast. The second interview was with Dr. Chris Martenson who has a PhD in pathology from Duke University. At 1hr40mins its a lot longer than normal podcast, I assume because the Dr Martenson interview wasn't originally planned. He goes on to talk about all the following and was an interesting listen.
  • Will nCoV turn out to be worse than the 2003 SARS epidemic?
  • What is Asymptomatic Transmission and R-naught; what are their significances?
  • How should we be thinking about the Case Fatality Rate for nCov?
  • How will nCoV impact the markets?
My takeaways were
  • We have no idea how reliable any of the data is, so everything must be be viewed with that in mind.
  • The Asymptomatic Transmission and potentially high R-naught - potentially much higher than the flu or SARS could be the real problems.;

https://www.macrovoices.com/

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  #16 (permalink)
grosship
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demand in china down 3 milions barrels per day, i think that 45 dollars will be nice price in several weeks

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  #17 (permalink)
grosship
berlin
 
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and short gold,there isnt reason for some panic,82 procent people which have corona virus ,dont need doctor,only 3 procent people death

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  #18 (permalink)
Hello1
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I tend to watch multiple markets and trade where I assume there will be the bigger swings/ volatility.

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  #19 (permalink)
Shaban
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Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Fund), has predicted for 2020, that gold will rise; will it?... we'll see...

"..... the good guys at Bridgewater have just churned out a new public prophecy: gold will rise to $2,000."

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/nell-anno-record-wall-street-fondo-bridgewater-dalio-fa-05percento-AC3TlvCB?refresh_ce=1

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Last Updated on March 14, 2020


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