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Oil price negative?


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Oil price negative?

  #141 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The perspective for Germany is not looking good

IFO numbers today - on a new HISTORICAL LOW

"The Corona crisis is pushing the mood in German companies to a historic low. The business climate index for April published on Friday fell to 74.3 points after 85.9 points in March. This is the lowest value ever measured."

Professionals were voting for 80 points for this month and are absolutely wrong.

GFIs1

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  #142 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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@TraderMich, @SunTrader, @spideysteve, @GFIs1 any chance we can move the Green discussion to a more relevant thread? (Don't forget half of the US thinks Global warming is a liberal conspiracy)


329200 View Post
Now that there is no front month expiration, and oil prices trade well above zero:

Brokerages tell clients - no buying oil for two months

Pathetic. CME/NYMEX have increased margins 3 times in 6 days. Let them do there hjob.

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 spideysteve 
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SMCJB View Post
@TraderMich, @SunTrader, @spideysteve, @GFIs1 any chance we can move the Green discussion to a more relevant thread? (Don't forget half of the US thinks Global warming is a liberal conspiracy)


Pathetic. CME/NYMEX have increased margins 3 times in 6 days. Let them do there hjob.

Agreed.

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  #144 (permalink)
 
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 TraderMich 
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SMCJB View Post
@TraderMich, @SunTrader, @spideysteve, @GFIs1 any chance we can move the Green discussion to a more relevant thread? (Don't forget half of the US thinks Global warming is a liberal conspiracy)


Pathetic. CME/NYMEX have increased margins 3 times in 6 days. Let them do there hjob.

I am not into a Green discussion. The thread, I am simply trying to point out why I, in my modest, opinion think that oil prices could become negative or, more likely, very low (still positive) could happen. I am not trying to make this a political discussion but simply putting my point of view forward on the future oil pricing. - But if my opinion is not relevant here then so be it but when you say: "Don't forget half of the US thinks Global warming is a liberal conspiracy" does that mean that you represent approx. 150.000.000 in the US? - Any way 50% of the US population is still a very small per cent of the world population and also a small per cent of the world trading /investing environment _ or am I wrong here that only the opinion of US citizens is relevant here? - If so, I really apologize that I as a non-US citizen raised my opinion in this forum

Good luck and good trading to all wherever in the world you are living.

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TraderMich View Post
I am not into a Green discussion. The thread, I am simply trying to point out why I, in my modest, opinion think that oil prices could become negative or, more likely, very low (still positive) could happen. I am not trying to make this a political discussion but simply putting my point of view forward on the future oil pricing. - But if my opinion is not relevant here then so be it but when you say: "Don't forget half of the US thinks Global warming is a liberal conspiracy" does that mean that you represent approx. 150.000.000 in the US? - Any way 50% of the US population is still a very small per cent of the world population and also a small per cent of the world trading /investing environment _ or am I wrong here that only the opinion of US citizens is relevant here? - If so, I really apologize that I as a non-US citizen raised my opinion in this forum

Good luck and good trading to all wherever in the world you are living.

Don't take offense. This thread was intended to discuss the negative prices that we saw this week and is getting off topic. Nothing to do with not respecting anybodies opinions. There's actually a huge Crude Oil Analysis thread and what your saying would be a lot more appropriate in there.

Re: The US: It was meant as a joke even if it is scarily true.

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  #146 (permalink)
 
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SMCJB View Post
Don't take offense. This thread was intended to discuss the negative prices that we saw this week and is getting off topic. Nothing to do with not respecting anybodies opinions. There's actually a huge Crude Oil Analysis thread and what your saying would be a lot more appropriate in there.

Re: The US: It was meant as a joke even if it is scarily true.

Well - First of all we have not seen negative oil prices only negative prices on oil derivates. - Secondly I am trying to address me view on low oil prices (and a spinoff of this is negative oil derivates prices) - Oil has been in a down trend for years (lower highs lower lows ) for years and for the latest move started a new break down at the 1.st week of January approx. 5 weeks earlier than the stock markets started to break down, so my conclusion is that this is not Corona related but driving by lower demand than the supply. One of the reasons for the lower demand is increasing so called green tech. In many parts of the world. E.g. local where I live Goldmann Sachs has heavily involved in this and made a quick and huge profit in a company that sold of oil and gas activities to focus 100% on green tech. - So, this is my take on the low oil pricing. The negative oil derivate pricing this week was just a squeeze spin-off of the low oil price,and my take is still that oil and coal are obsolete energy sources and I suggest that traders and investors take this into account when trading/investing.

I am sure that there where many US people and people in other parts of the world that saw automobiles as a concept of radical thinking people and stuck to their horse and carriages.
If one holds on to the present one will miss the future.

I am not pro or con green tech. I am simply trying to gauge the situation. And this is my understanding of this thread, but again I might have totally misunderstood it, not for the first time and sure not for the last.

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SMCJB View Post
Don't take offense. This thread was intended to discuss the negative prices that we saw this week and is getting off topic. Nothing to do with not respecting anybodies opinions. There's actually a huge Crude Oil Analysis thread and what your saying would be a lot more appropriate in there.

Re: The US: It was meant as a joke even if it is scarily true.

My 02 cents

You guys are all smart and have very distinct views, and thank god you do.!!
It is why Americans are unique, we are not sheep.

In all of this discussion, nobody brought up the ARABS, who actually control a large portion of world oil.
And since they have NO other economic producing business in their country...Oil is everything !!! and their future, unfortunately.
Western cultures fueled their growth. In 1938 Aramco was a USA company drilling is the Saudi desert.
Now in 2019 Aramco became an IPO... 71 years later.....they have paid for all there oil exploration and equipment years ago.
Why did it take them 80 years to do the IPO? Why now? Why 2019 ????

My point, the Arabs are the ONLY oil-producing country that can make a PROFIT on 12 dollars a barrel Oil.
And they no longer want the Russians, the South American and the USA in their game.
They see the writing on the wall with green and the environment, they know they have limited time
So they are going to capitalize.

The "dominance" in the oil game has been doing on for some time, it came to head last year with the Russian refusing to the OPEC rules so the Saudi's did what they had to do to keep dominance, they know nobody else can make money at 12 dollars a barrel but them.

From and Article:..........As long as prices remain above the cost of getting the next barrel out of the ground — the lifting cost — wells already in operation will keep pumping. And those costs can be pretty low. Saudi Aramco, the monopoly oil producer in Saudi Arabia, boasts an extraction cost of about $2.80 a barrel, according to the prospectus for last year’s initial public offering of its shares. Russia’s oil companies are not far behind, with Rosneft PJSC, Gazprom Neft and Lukoil PJSC all reporting production costs below $4 a barrel.


https://www.aramco.com/en/creating-value/products/oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-15/by-pumping-at-will-saudi-arabia-hurts-oil-investment-everywhere


My 0.02cents

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  #148 (permalink)
TraderMax1
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I'm in the same situation with TD, once price in QM was negative I did not have the opportunity to sell the contracts, the system rejected the order because they could not accept negative values, I spoke with them and they told me that they could not do anything, fortunately I have proof that my orders were rejected at -1 $, if you know of class actions please keep me updated, as will I if I know anything about it. I think CFTC reparations complaint may be an option.




Big Mike View Post
So your true PnL is closer to a $50k loss?

Please do keep us posted on what IB has to say about their system supporting negative prices. Especially given you are showing the data feed was inactive/blind once it hit zero. I would say you likely have a case just based on this preliminary info. I would imagine there will be a class action if what you experienced is true, a lot of others will say the same. If that ends up happening, you should consider joining the class action.

That god it was QM and not CL.

Mike


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  #149 (permalink)
 
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 TraderMich 
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TraderMax1 View Post
I'm in the same situation with TD, once price in QM was negative I did not have the opportunity to sell the contracts, the system rejected the order because they could not accept negative values, I spoke with them and they told me that they could not do anything, fortunately I have proof that my orders were rejected at -1 $, if you know of class actions please keep me updated, as will I if I know anything about it. I think CFTC reparations complaint may be an option.


Recieved this from LMAX today - Plaese note this is regarding Oil Spot prices NOT future/dericiate pricing:

"Dear Clients,

With the real risk of negative crude oil prices occurring again in the coming weeks, and in light of many platforms being unable to show a negative price, we will be withdrawing our US Crude (Spot) product in the event the price drops below $5.50 and close all positions at the best price available to us in the market. The same will apply to our UK Brent (Spot) product should its price drop below $5.50.

To facilitate continued trading in our oil products in the event prices drop below $5.50, we are introducing a new US Crude +100 and UK Brent +100 product that will be priced at $100 + the respective spot price. The new products will be resilient to negative spot prices and will be available for trading from 17:00hrs UK time on Tuesday 28th April, allowing you to transition your positions to the new products should you wish."


Just for information i trade on Sierra Chart and sierra Chart had no problem in handling negative pricing or orders.

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TraderMich View Post
Recieved this from LMAX today - Plaese note this is regarding Oil Spot prices NOT future/dericiate pricing:

"Dear Clients,

With the real risk of negative crude oil prices occurring again in the coming weeks, and in light of many platforms being unable to show a negative price, we will be withdrawing our US Crude (Spot) product in the event the price drops below $5.50 and close all positions at the best price available to us in the market. The same will apply to our UK Brent (Spot) product should its price drop below $5.50.

To facilitate continued trading in our oil products in the event prices drop below $5.50, we are introducing a new US Crude +100 and UK Brent +100 product that will be priced at $100 + the respective spot price. The new products will be resilient to negative spot prices and will be available for trading from 17:00hrs UK time on Tuesday 28th April, allowing you to transition your positions to the new products should you wish."


Just for information i trade on Sierra Chart and sierra Chart had no problem in handling negative pricing or orders.

That’s crazy. Somehow reminds me of when Venezuela was going through a big currency crisis, so they introduced the “strong Bolivar” which was supposed to be .. stronger I guess. But really, that was just a shell game with rampant inflation.

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