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Deciphering Draw figures on WTI/CL Futures


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Deciphering Draw figures on WTI/CL Futures

  #1 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
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Hi All,
Any guidance would be greatly appreciated.
Have started trading CL and it's going well, am struggling to understand the 'draw' weekly news and how it impacts CL. Yesterday (9th My 2023) there was big news in the WTI contract (I think?) detailed here https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-crude-stocks-up-36m-barrels-last-week-vs-forecast-draw-3077771

But then this page here https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75/ says that the next big news release is today (May 10th). Are there different weekly draw reports, and if so how are they different from each other?

Regards,
Keab

EDIT Yes CL is the futures contract for WTI-sorry I should have made that clear. I don't understand two differing reports though!

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 SMCJB 
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API is the American Petroleum Institute which is a US Trade Association. Their members voluntarily report stock levels to them which they publish after market close on Tuesday.

EIA is the Energy Information Association which is a US Government entity. Reporting to EIA is compulsory. They release their statistics on Wednesday mornings at 1030 Eastern.

API data is subscription only, while EIA data is free which combined with the voluntary vs compulsory reporting requirement means that people care a lot more about EIA than they do API, but the API data is released 18 hours earlier!

There are often major discrepancies between the two. One thing to note about oil stocks. Crude tankers are very large with VLCCs transporting 2.2 million barrels at a time. A ship is deemed to have discharged when it finishes discharging. So if a ship starts discharging on Wednesday and finishes 1 min past midnight on Friday/Saturday, then officially the ship discharged 2.2 million barrels on Saturday. In reality most of that oil is in the system Thursday/Friday which makes reporting complicated and subject to large(ish) swings. (Oil report is based upon stocks on Friday night)

Something else important about the oil stock releases is the PADD data.
PADD 1 is the East Coast. The NYMEX Heating Oil and Gasoline contracts are for delivery into New York Harbor. (NYH).
PADD 2 is the Midwest ~ includes Cushing OK which is the delivery basis of the NYMEX Crude contract.
PADD 3 is the Gulf Coast. This area and its storage capacity is massive in comparison to the other PADDs
PADD 4 is the Rockies. This areas storage capacity is tiny and is extremely constrained.
PADD 5 is the West Coast. Because of the Rockies, the West Coast and PADD 5 are effectively a separate market to the rest of the US.
So people really care about PADD 1, 2 & 3 although 1 is more important for Products.

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  #3 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 123
Thanks Received: 316


Dear SMCJB,
Thank you so much for taking the time to write such an informative and helpful post.

Regards,
Keab

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  #4 (permalink)
 Keab 
London UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart/Prorealtime
Broker: Sierra Chart/prorealtime
Trading: SandP futures
Posts: 510 since Jul 2013
Thanks Given: 123
Thanks Received: 316


SMCJB View Post
API is the American Petroleum Institute which is a US Trade Association. Their members voluntarily report stock levels to them which they publish after market close on Tuesday.

EIA is the Energy Information Association which is a US Government entity. Reporting to EIA is compulsory. They release their statistics on Wednesday mornings at 1030 Eastern.

API data is subscription only, while EIA data is free which combined with the voluntary vs compulsory reporting requirement means that people care a lot more about EIA than they do API, but the API data is released 18 hours earlier!

There are often major discrepancies between the two. One thing to note about oil stocks. Crude tankers are very large with VLCCs transporting 2.2 million barrels at a time. A ship is deemed to have discharged when it finishes discharging. So if a ship starts discharging on Wednesday and finishes 1 min past midnight on Friday/Saturday, then officially the ship discharged 2.2 million barrels on Saturday. In reality most of that oil is in the system Thursday/Friday which makes reporting complicated and subject to large(ish) swings. (Oil report is based upon stocks on Friday night)

Something else important about the oil stock releases is the PADD data.
PADD 1 is the East Coast. The NYMEX Heating Oil and Gasoline contracts are for delivery into New York Harbor. (NYH).
PADD 2 is the Midwest ~ includes Cushing OK which is the delivery basis of the NYMEX Crude contract.
PADD 3 is the Gulf Coast. This area and its storage capacity is massive in comparison to the other PADDs
PADD 4 is the Rockies. This areas storage capacity is tiny and is extremely constrained.
PADD 5 is the West Coast. Because of the Rockies, the West Coast and PADD 5 are effectively a separate market to the rest of the US.
So people really care about PADD 1, 2 & 3 although 1 is more important for Products.


To follow up your informative reply, what is the generally accepted way if interpreting draw/build figures?
Using this article as a guide https://oilprice.com:443/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-Despite-Massive-Crude-Inventory-Draw.html
If there is a larger than expected draw (depleting of reserves) then it 'should' signal oil price strength due to larger than expected demand? Which means more oil needs to be brought in order to 'build' reserves back again?
As always any help is gratefully received!

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 SMCJB 
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I agree that is what you would expect. Markets don't always do what you expect though. If they did making money would be easy.

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Last Updated on September 7, 2023


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