NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





>50% win rate intraday with stop=target ?


Discussion in Currencies

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one GFIs1 with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    2. looks_two l1onel with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Jigsaw Trading with 2 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 teamtc247 with 2 posts (0 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two kevinkdog with 3 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Linds with 2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Tymbeline with 2 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 9,606 views
    2. thumb_up 16 thanks given
    3. group 17 followers
    1. forum 24 posts
    2. attach_file 1 attachments




 
Search this Thread

>50% win rate intraday with stop=target ?

  #21 (permalink)
 
Sandpaddict's Avatar
 Sandpaddict 
Vancouver, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader, MT4
Broker: IB, Global Prime
Trading: Futures CFDs
Posts: 684 since Mar 2020
Thanks Given: 975
Thanks Received: 637


Trowhaway3014 View Post
I always go for a reward that is at least the size of my risk for less win rate, I want a reward that is at least twice as large as my risk and in pretty much no case should traders be taking trades where the risk is greater than the reward because then you have to be right 80% or 90% of the time. Thatís very difficult to do, even for a very experienced trader.

True. The only problem is you still have to find enough of those larger winners and they have to be large enough to overcome all the losses.

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Exit Strategy
NinjaTrader
NexusFi Journal Challenge - May 2024
Feedback and Announcements
How to apply profiles
Traders Hideout
Trade idea based off three indicators.
Traders Hideout
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Spoo-nalysis ES e-mini futures S&P 500
45 thanks
Just another trading journal: PA, Wyckoff & Trends
30 thanks
Tao te Trade: way of the WLD
24 thanks
Bigger Wins or Fewer Losses?
23 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
21 thanks
  #22 (permalink)
Spottrader
springfield, US
 
Posts: 27 since Apr 2022
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 12


MyTraderAdvisor View Post
Does anyone managed to make more than 50% win rate, intraday, with same stop as target ?
Cm'on, it has just to be a bit better than flipping a coin...
Any idea, suggestion, strategy report, signal ?
Could be a new challenge idea for BigMike ;-)

If they told you yes, would you believe them?

And then what?

A little lost about the same stop as target part.

Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)
massacre
Salford, UK
 
Posts: 6 since Mar 2023
Thanks Given: 0
Thanks Received: 2


Winrate doesnít necessarily matter as big as RR, try to get 1:3+ RR minimum on your trades and the required winrate is around 35% to be profitable. Much easier on the psyche.

Reply With Quote
  #24 (permalink)
 
Tymbeline's Avatar
 Tymbeline 
Leeds UK
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradovate
Broker: Tradovate
Trading: MES, MNQ
Frequency: Several times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 647 since Apr 2015
Thanks Given: 2,347
Thanks Received: 1,057


massacre View Post
try to get 1:3+ RR minimum on your trades


They still (as ever, historically) have different belief-sets in Lancashire from those prevalent in Yorkshire.

All my own experiences over the decades I've been interested in trading, and interested in discussing techniques and methods with successful retail traders, have gradually but inexorably led me to the conclusion: that reward-to-risk ratios of 3.0 or more are very, very rarely viable or profitable over the long term for retail traders. And the long term's what matters, isn't it?

There are some very specific reasons for this, IMO.

With a 25% win-rate, over a series of about 600 trades, the chances are around 50/50 that you'll have a consecutive losing run of 20 or more trades. Not that "longest losing runs" are the real problem, anyway: "long losing patches" are far more common (by which I mean "series of consecutive results including mostly losers and a few winners which are financially equivalent in their overall outcome to a long losing run of consecutive trades"). And over a much longer run than 600 trades, the chances of hitting 45 losers over 50 consecutive trades are getting up toward 100%.

The specific problem with this is that when it happens (NB: not "if" it happens), it's going to be almost impossible to judge whether you're just having a "perfectly predictable really bad run" or what you're doing is no longer working, and you're just going to continue to lose more and more with it, if you continue. And that's a really nasty but entirely foreseeable problem one surely must try to avoid?

All of which is why in practice it's far more comfortable, IMO, to have a win-rate much closer to 50% than anyone's ever likely to achieve with a 1:3+ RR. But I wish you well with it, if you can really pull it off, long term!

Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #25 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
Posts: 3,664 since Jul 2012
Thanks Given: 1,892
Thanks Received: 7,359


massacre View Post
Winrate doesnít necessarily matter as big as RR, try to get 1:3+ RR minimum on your trades and the required winrate is around 35% to be profitable. Much easier on the psyche.

Looking at the strategies I trade, 1:3 risk to reward is outside of my personal range.

I am much closer to @Tymbeline 's 50%


Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:




Last Updated on March 22, 2023


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts