Last trading day of the month and the first day of my Combine! We're finally back home after a nice long crazy but fun vacation in Florida and I'm ready to get to work!
My focus will be 100% on the bonds (ZB) and implementing the TCI strategy I learned from Todd Mitchell at Trading Concepts. I won't expand to the ES until I'm fully comfortable implementing the bonds system. I don't want to overload myself until I'm ready. I use multiple time frame analysis (10 minute and 3 minute day session only charts and a 10 minute overnight chart), prior support and resistance levels, pivot levels (daily, weekly and monthly), 200 period EMAs and a fast 2 bar RSI to pick my entry levels. I look to take mostly counter trend bounce trades and trend trades when they present themselves. I work a full time job and only have at most a couple hours in the morning to trade. I'm in the Mountain time zone and since the bonds open at 6:20 am local time, this schedule actually works out well for me. My long term goal is to eventually transition out of my job and trade full time from home.
The jobless claims came out at 8:30 am ET and I waited for the market to settle down a bit. The Bonds got knocked lower early with a big down bar at 6:40 on the 10 minute chart. I was thinking it would continue lower but we got a bounce right off the second 10 minute bar's low of 163'11 and the 10 minute 200 EMA. The RSI was oversold on the 3 minute chart only and I'm not sure if the buy there was legal. We were above the 200 on the 10, under the 200 EMA on the 3 and the opening drive was down.
This bounce would have been a quick winner and I'm already feeling distressed because I missed out. But how many times have I seen only the 3 minute RSI either overbought or oversold on an opening drive and then the market kept running, especially after a news announcement? Yesterday was basically a V formation with a selloff towards the end of the day so perhaps today will be a trendless inside day? I really need to go for these early morning trades if the setup is there. It's my best chance to stay consistent and still make it in to work at a reasonable time. I'm trying not to kick myself too much for missing this trade. There were plenty of reasons to stay out.
Argh I missed yet another trade. The 7:20 bar on the 10 was a huge run up with a 12 point range. We got oversold on the 10 but I had a really hard time getting in front of what looked to be the start of a huge freight train run up. The market stalled out one tick above that bar's high of 163'30 and ran straight back down. I hesitated with my order at 163'29 and by the time I put the order in, it was too late and I didn't want to chase the market. It looks like today will be a typical bond bounce day.
So although I'm obviously upset that I missed two trades, I did do some things well today.
Positives: I was up on time and ready to trade as if it was my real job, I had no distractions, I was focused and tried to make solid trading decisions based on levels and strategy and not on whim or chance, I didn't panic and chase the market and I took really good honest journal notes.
Areas for improvement: I need to hesitate less and act decisively when opportunities present themselves, I need to trust my strategy, I need to relax and not stress over being in the Combine and I need to give myself credit and not beat myself up.
All in all today was a very valuable day. Even though I didn't trade I got great experience and learned a ton. We have one more trading today tomorrow and the start of a new month!