following BigMikeTrading/nexusfi.com for some time and getting a lot out of it anytime I want to thank everybody for being here and especially BigMike for inventing and maintaining the website.
I decided to share my daily morning analysis and the days outcome - mainly to keep myself accountable. I feel pretty confident in analyzing my markets - but not as confident in actually trading them and pretty weak in evaluating the outcome. So I hope accountability and maybe feedback will add some insight...
Here is what I do as a trader:
I am following 4 markets: FDXM (Mini-DAX), FESX (EuroStoxx 50, 6E (EuroUSD) and CL (Crude Oil) as futures.
Since I need to focus my attention on as little information as possible I only actually trade one of these markets at any given time.
I`m trading - of course - my beliefsystem. I'm believing markets are following certain patterns repeatedly and I try to take advantage of them.
One of these patterns are up- and down trends.
A trend develops through two movements in the opposite direction: the "progression" determining the trends direction - and the "regression", opposing the progression and correcting it. From here I follow this...
...Tradelogic:
I want to trade the trend's progression (of a shortterm chart (2-5 minutes), according to the analysis of the 2 (sometimes 3) higher timeframes):
Signal-Logic > Entry:
As indication for a reversal zone (from regression into a beginning progression) and as signal trigger I am using simple moving averages:
Signal-Logic > reward expectancy:
The assumed and expected reward for trading a progression is the top (bottom) of the projection of the preceding regression:
Signal-Logic > risk/reward
I may open a position, if the risk/reward expectancy from the projection of the preceding regression (in the direction of the current trend) is around twice the regression (pullback).
Signal-Logic > trendlocation
I may open a position, if the current trend (on the trading chart level) has the chance to proceed according to the 2 higher timeframes. In order to judge the actual location I need to continue analyzing the market as it proceeds.
Analysis
The backbone of the methodology is ongoing market analysis (how I analyze () and determining trendphases. I keep 3 and sometimes 4 chart(timeframe) levels in mind:
Going from here I determine general directions, todays trade direction, targets and important pricelevels:
I repeat analysis and identification of important price zones and reversal zones during the trading day, waiting for valid signals to form.
Having a pattern met all conditions and turned into a signal I open a position (see Strategies and Tactics > "Bread and Butter" () and manage it according to a certain stop- and exit logic; taking care of statistics so market gives a little more back than it keeps - a little more often than not.
Thank you for reading and bearing with me - next I'll post this mornings analysis.