one thing should also not be forgotten. as an example:

- a surprisingly high/good nfp number (well above forecast) could have a very positive impact on the stock market
- but also a surprisingly high/good nfp number (well above forecast) could result in a severe move down in the market

so it's not just the number itself. it depends on other things as well. like the state of the economy. if the economy is weak, the market might like strong nfp numbers. but if the economy is strong, the market might prefer weak nfp numbers because fear of inflation.

also not to forget, the revised numbers from the previous month could have a big impact as well.

of course there're other factors as well. like what does the market expect (not the analysts), how is the market positioned, what are other numbers showing (like unemployment rate, hourly earnings) coming out the same time etc...

Whilst I agree with all of that let's try to keep this simple. A surprise number from an important economic news release that exceeds the best/worst analyst expectation is going to jump and reprice fast. If you're quick enough to enter on the quick retrace (the market will ALWAYS give you a chance to exit/enter) from the initial parabolic move then you can make money. Whether it hits longer term S/R (like today on ES) is secondary. I made good money on a tweet from China this morning doing just this. It then bounced back from longer term S/R. But that initial move, and that first quick retrace is what we're talking about. Or at least I am

I agree with the above and have made that same trade many times. That is probably the safest way to trade the news. I also agree that the same type of news can have different impacts depending on the market context at the time. I believe that this is where you can have a bigger edge.

For example:
An econ number is about to come out
The instrument you are trading has been in a strong rally and previous numbers that were slight misses didn't cause much selling.
The contract you trade stands a good chance to move higher if the number is higher than the market expectation, based on previous reactions.
We are also sitting above a major s/r level
If your analysis is correct, then you have a lot more to gain on the upside than you have to lose on the downside.
You could enter a position with size that allows for plenty of wiggle room while staying within your risk parameters before the number comes out in an attempt to catch the whole move up if the number beats expectations.

Personally, I like the above scenario if I have already been in the trade for a while and have seen some profit. I'm comfortable loosening my stop up and parlaying my initial gains on the trade so that I can let the news work for me. I don't enter right before the news comes out.