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The whole idea is from Toby Crabel. He wrote a series of articles entitled "Playing the opening range breakout" in Stocks and Commodities Magazine. These later became a book that is no longer in print. The articles however can be found on the internet. I would highly recommend that anyone interested in the opening range breakout read these articles. (just google)
By way of futher explaination......I let 5 minutes go by........I note the high and low of the first 5 minutes......if it's going up I place a buy stop 1 tick above the high of the first 5 minutes. If price exceeds the first 5 minute bar I will get taken into the market. Right now I am working on a scalping strategy that has a 10 point target on the YM.....I may have to scale this back a couple of points....but it worked great today! (see previous chart #1323) You may have to experiment with your targets and stops. Some traders may be able to stay with these trades longer if they are not scalpers.
All I can tell you is to go back and do historical research and see how far price usually goes once it exceeds the first 5 minute bar......use this for your target. Try different risk/reward ratios and see what works the best. Check the winning percentage for your targets and see how that works with your r/r.
With the way I was approaching it I had a 77% winning rate with a 23% breakeven with no losing days in the last 27 trading days. I can live with that.
But the thing to do is go to the master....Toby Crabel. READ THOSE ARTICLES.
Learn to recognize support and resistance. All it is ....is noticing where the market stops. Then draw a line there. When price goes past a place it had been stopping at.....that's your trade.
Put charts with just price on it and draw lines all weekend long. After a while you will start to catch on. You don't need much else....just good observation skills.
Hi Jeff,
I like this indicator you mentioned in post 16 of this thread (Colored_MAs_by_slope) in that it differentiates the steepness of the slope. It is available from Greattradingsystems.com in the Ninja tab. I would like to see this same indicator with a Hull MA instead of the Simple MA. I am looking for a set of indicators to build a strategy.
Have you done any mod's to indicators like this?
Thanks,
John
Hey Jeff, one thing that I find helps in quickly determining break outs of a "Time Bound Range" on those charts that I'm NOT using a 5 minute view is this Hi/Lo indicator attached. It is real easy to set up and quickly points out on your chart the Hi/Lo bracket for the time set, in this case (9:30-9:35).
I too have confirmed that it is not uncommon for a failed break to one side of the bracket to eventually lead to a successful break of the OTHER END of the bracket. In addition, this concept can also work around other critical time brackets such as just after cash close (4:00-4:05). While the moves are not always as dramatic as the opening 5 minutes they still present some level of opportunity.
You have just entered MA Slope heaven....... We have been exploring possible uses for moving average slopes on this thread for quite a while now. In addition to the many choices of sloped moving averages in the free download area there are a couple of interest in the VIP area as well. (TEMA Dots and JeffsDots)
Please keep us updated on your strategies progress.
I love this "indicator" so much that I just had to improve it. I use "indicator" lightly or else people will accuse me of going back on my anti-indicator stance.
I added the following:
- profit & stop targets are drawn on the chart
- the spread (difference between the high & low) is shown
This makes it really easy to test out various profit & stop settings. Please note they're in points, so for ES 5 ticks you put 1.25. For YM I guess that'd be 25. I only tested it with ES.
If anyone has any other suggestions please let me know. I'm diggin' this. Thanks Jeff & HJay.
PS: It's a coincidence that the stop is the same for long & short. It's not usually the case..