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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
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I'm short some odd lot NQ puts, and long ES & NQ futures, but I view this more as an investment rather than a trade. My position is currently under-weighted vs my target exposure.
The correlation between the markets and polls prediction of a Clinton's win has been uncanny the last 10 days. Hence I wasn't surprised we sold off last night as the polls all became wrong. Very surprised we bounced back so quickly. I had some low ball bids out there last night and only got filled on one (2031.25). Not sure what the future holds though, so sold them back out this morning and just booked the profit. My gut tells me we're going back down lower, but I don't normally trade on gut feelings. Difficult to separate the personal bias from the facts.
Ha. I don't follow my plan of immediately replacing closed positions because I think I am smarter than the market and ES jumps 30 points after I exited my positions and didn't replace them.
So now I have a tougher decision to make. Do I sell them now or wait for a lower ES day? I'm going to wait.
Anybody think today's rise is shorts bailing out way too late and we drop when they are done buying?
Today I close EWZ6 P1870/1750 spread (1:1) at 2.7 ( MROI=3.8%) which I bought on 9/29 at 5.5
Still hold:
EWF7 P 1760/1375 spread (1:2) from 10/05 (price 5.85)
EWF7 P 1910/1725 spread (1:1) from 10/28 (price 11.75)
I'm not really going to open any new positions until Trump is in office and we get to see how the world reacts. I have to wait until the new year anyway for tax reasons and the details of our new house. I'm genuinely worried about the impact of all the changes to the trade agreements, he's promised to do it in the first 100 days.
What about you guys, most seem to just have small positions open?
Here is an interesting comparison on a KC call option spread between two different months.
Left hand side is KC Jan 200-230 call spread 1:1 using 6X IM. I put this position in my account. Right hand side is same strikes but March. Starting DTE was 58 vs 121. (Note I would have preferred a higher DTE than Jan's but Feb options had almost no volume.)
After 29 days held, the Jan premium was down to 44% of starting price on 20161012. But the March premium was still 127% of the premium on 20161012.
The draw down for the Jan spread on 20161107 was 15.6% but the March spread was 33.6%.
One other interesting thing, and this shows why selling options is an easier way to trade, is that KC futures on 20161012 were 156. 29 days later they were higher at 166. But even though I was wrong on the direction of futures the position made a nice profit. 4.1% monthly ROI.