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Updated June 14, 2024
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April 1st, 2024, 10:29 AM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
Q2 start, looks over range out of the gate, selling pressure
energy is currently sorting itself out and gold as well
the bond dip may be an opportunity
//
there is some reluctance due to slowed expectations for rate cuts
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
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April 2nd, 2024, 10:43 AM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
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commodities seeing green, crude and rbob, palladium (cats)
precious metals really pumping with vix , alas not crypto
indexes and bonds are feeling the heat, forex is wild
//
also suspecting with the dipping that bonds might be supported regardless
seeing carries like aud/jpy and eur/jpy react positively.. indexes may not be that far behind on this dip
energy and vix are extended and just riding along toward the inevitable nfp .. more like accessories vs main event
//
so noticed that longer term yields rose more vs. notes and bills and that indicates bear steepening
longer dated is sold for shorter duration in anticipation of rate adjustments
the opposite would be short term dropping more as bull steepening
//
kinda similar to backwardation, where holding on results in lower prices on the next contract
so a bear steepener instead hides in the shorter end to collect lower yield but with less vol
or if vol were in contango then maybe holding premium might be worthwhile .. and yes vol is until elections
//
altogether plotting we see that the contango rises faster for 10y v 30y from sep to dec 24.. and the contract starts 3 mo ahead (expiry date)
so then.. summer / q3?
April 3rd, 2024, 11:03 AM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
the latent vol has provided cloud cover for entry
carries did give an early all clear signal confirmation
and the levels were appropriate for a confirmed setup today
//
going into Q2'24 earnings, we expect continued strength
energy is an annoying tailwind but part of the package
also an eye on dollar and inflationary adjustments / effects
//
there is still some latency and pressure into nfp so tbd
April 4th, 2024, 12:37 PM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
looks like the front run has been established in indexes and vol
so the nfp data would be just a confirmation to this advance
the missing piece is bonds which will likely follow a delayed path
//
as a clue, energy is interesting and is propped enough but is paused
would be interested in whether crypto and gold would pop as well
all understandable into nfp and carries as well
//
the carries look close to saturated and any negative result would reverse
they were one of the first to signal the turn in trend and possibly again
dollar / forex behavior, so would not be too exuberant going into the frontrun
//
individual sectors, semis seem coiled and possibly mag7 at the inflection
googl seems saturated and less responsive, meta amzn msft really pushed
nvda and aapl coiled, smci too.. decent 50/50 on indexes so maybe 1/2 off
//
confounding factor hit with news events so now just on pause
levels shifted patching over weakness (already baked in)
event seems to override any incoming data
April 5th, 2024, 03:21 PM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
vix also up hopefully passes along with crude
indexes might float further if carries can hold the line
yields seem to just slowly fade but steady, dollar as well
April 9th, 2024, 12:39 PM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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rbob seems to be waning, helping lower inflation
gold and silver may but still needs to fade out
carries seem ok, longer yields dropping more
//
these nextgen disruptors are very real
language ai is both a contextually relevant processor and a content extractor (you provide search data to the interface similar to google)
automation, robotics and particularly electric vehicles are edging closer to primacy like it or not
//
there is a theme for simplicity, avoiding redundancy and improving scale .. sort of moore's law but on civilization itself..
here's to hoping we are on the base end of an exponential liftoff
elections could be decided based off of such issues instead
April 10th, 2024, 02:04 PM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
the burst from the dollar is pushing usd/jpy as well
an attempt to tame commodities but likely needs more
bonds still in the nono zone pulling down harder
//
charting case schiller 20-city composite
there was attempt to break support last year
that attempt may re-surface as well this spring
//
watching buyers take in the higher yield loans
something like ~20% premium for buying in
then a drag lower with the supply pressure
//
minneapolis seems close to a break
detroit / phoenix less healthy vs miami
quick estimates default to pre-2020 prices
//
going after housing as a large inflation factor
likely one of the closely monitored tenets for the fed
perhaps the equity loss can be washed by indexes eventually
//
warnings were served but buyers still entered
and this is the likely aftermath and path forward
maybe the excess will repair generational imbalances
April 11th, 2024, 10:46 AM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
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nice drop in energy, indexes trying
yields unknown to diverted to indexes
and vix is making an attempt but rejected
//
entry first in nq which led
followed by es, rty and ym lagging
and took off after hitting unexpected levels
//
solid rebound
April 12th, 2024, 10:52 AM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
usd/jpy as a carry is just pending
energy never had a chance to really develop either
also stalled from financial earnings kickoff
//
usd/jpy and other carries are signaling early recovery
energy reverted after bump failing a break possible revert
gold is similar outside channel and needs to rest for buildup
April 14th, 2024, 07:46 PM
boston ma
Posts: 383 since Dec 2012
Thanks Given: 12
Thanks Received: 108
almost as if.. we are united in a war against inflation
other wars are less important
and inflationary in the wrong manner
//
then from ww2 > viet / kor > cold > proxy > cooperative relations
neither fronts have interests that supercede fighting inflation
as the most devastating is economic warfare affecting all involved
//
went out of their way to define the risks, introducing certainty
certainty is great. vol is taken out, risk-off commodities too
inflation fizzles further and we can continue our path fwd
Last Updated on June 14, 2024