Iran Ceasefire Surges to 19.5% on US 15-Point Plan -- 82nd Airborne Deploys as March 31 Expiry

Peace Odds Reverse 63% Overnight as Pentagon Sends Troops

After ceasefire odds collapsed to 12% Monday, a formal US 15-point ceasefire proposal sent Iran peace probabilities surging to 19.5% overnight. This on the same day the Pentagon announced 82nd Airborne troops deploying to the Middle East, joining 50,000+ already in theater. Markets are pricing escalation and de-escalation simultaneously.

The Ceasefire Curve

Polymarket's tiered contracts reveal when traders think this war ends:

• March 31: 19.5% -- up from 12% yesterday ( Polymarket)
• April 15: 43% -- sharpest jump, +24pts in 15 days
• April 30: 51% -- crosses the coin-flip line
• May 31: 63% | Dec 31: 76%

The steepest part sits between March 31 and April 30 -- a 32-point surge. Markets see early-to-mid April as the most probable deal window, matching the plan's demand for a one-month temporary ceasefire. WTI dropped roughly 6% on the news. Iran countered with six conditions including US base closures and war compensation -- the gap remains wide.

Ground Entry Contracts

• US forces in Iran by March 31: 16.5% ( Polymarket)
• US forces in Iran by April 30: 53.5% -- the real coin flip

The 37-point spread is one month of escalation premium. With 82nd Airborne joining the buildup, the April contract looks appropriately priced.

Hungary: Polymarket's Hottest Election

TISZA at 65% to unseat Orban on April 12 with $34M volume. Polls show 10-14 point lead. EU policy implications significant. ( Polymarket)

March 31 Expiration Cluster

Six major contracts expire Monday: ceasefire, ground troops, regime fall, Netanyahu, Israel-Lebanon, Iran military action. Combined volume exceeds $200M. Iran's response to the 15-point plan sets direction through the weekend.

Data sourced from Polymarket and Robinhood. Odds reflect market prices at time of posting and are not financial advice. Discussion welcome below.

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."