US Navy Blockade of Hormuz Starts Today -- Oil Surges 8pct Above $100

US Navy Orders Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Starting 10 AM EDT Today

The ceasefire story has taken its sharpest turn yet. Multiple outlets ( CNN, AP, Reuters) report that after the Islamabad ceasefire talks ended without an agreement, President Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade Iranian ports starting at 10 AM EDT today (Monday, April 13).

Timeline of weekend events:

• Saturday-Sunday: Islamabad talks -- the first direct US-Iran meeting in over a decade -- ran marathon sessions but ended without a deal
• Sunday: Trump announced blockade on social media and Fox News, stating the US would block "any and all ships" entering or leaving Iranian ports
• Sunday: US Central Command confirmed blockade implementation at 10 AM EDT Monday
• Sunday: IRGC warned any military vessels approaching Hormuz would be "dealt with harshly and decisively"

Per CENTCOM (via AP): The blockade will be "enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas." Vessels transiting Hormuz to non-Iranian ports will not be impeded.

Trump stated on Fox News: "We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like. It's going to be all or none."

Market reaction (early Monday):

• WTI crude up ~8-9% above $103/barrel
• Brent crude up ~7-8% above $102/barrel
• Dow futures down ~1%, S&P 500 futures down ~1%
• Asian markets broadly lower -- Nikkei -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.9%, KOSPI -0.9%
• USD/JPY strengthened to 159.65 from 159.25

What this means for traders:

MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic told Reuters the market is "now largely back to conditions before the ceasefire, except now the US will block the remaining up to 2 million barrels per day Iranian-linked flows through the Strait of Hormuz as well."

The blockade targets Iranian exports specifically, but the broader risk is the IRGC's response. If they follow through on their threat against US military vessels, oil could spike well beyond current levels. Conversely, if Iran backs down, this could force concessions leading to a deal.

Key data points:

• Despite the chaos, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through Hormuz on Saturday -- suggesting some traffic was still moving under the ceasefire umbrella
• Two Iran-linked tankers fled the Gulf ahead of the blockade (per Kpler shipping data)
• Saudi Arabia has reportedly restored East-West pipeline capacity to 7 million bpd as an alternate route
• Trump admitted oil and gas prices "may remain high through November's midterm elections" -- US gas at $4.12/gallon, up 38% since the war started

International reaction:

The Kremlin criticized the blockade announcement, saying it would "hurt global markets." China's foreign minister said a Hormuz blockade is "not in the shared interests of the international community."

Trading the blockade:

The 10 AM EDT start time creates an obvious intraday catalyst for crude oil futures. The market is already pricing in the announcement, but actual enforcement and any Iranian response will drive the next move. Watch CL, HO, and RB through the open. Equities face dual headwinds from energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

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