North Carolina
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Tradestation
Trading: es
Posts: 644 since Nov 2011
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I don't trade Forex, and I don't have these statistics. One thing to keep in mind though when we talk about statistics is that there are 2 uses of statistics: to describe previous behavior "descriptive statistics" and to make inferences about the future, "predictive statistics". System developers and traders use statistics to weight possibilities of future behavior and often with good results but one should understand that such results can have a temporal nature to them because the markets are not "statistically well-behaved" in nature.
One verification you can use to determine how valid the statistics are would be to create a rolling histogram/graph of whatever properties you are interested in which would give you some range of probabilities and more importantly allow you to see how those probabilities change over time.
As far as risk, there have been quite a few Forex "black swan" events:
* Jan 15th, 2015 Swiss depeg CHF.
* 2016 Brexit EUR/GBP?
* Sure there are others..
* In theory any of these events could have happened at any time, so you might want to take the largest single day drawdown as a base-line. On the other hand, if such an event is a multi-standard deviation event then you might want to exclude it. Certainly events like the Swiss action on CHF should scare any trader.
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