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So what then, just winging it? That's called Revenge Trading and it's a very well established method of blowing up your account.
I realize we're getting off topic here but I like to think of it this way:
You are the Captain of your financial airplane, responsible not just for your own life but your passengers as well.
On those rare instances when the engines are on fire and you're losing altitude would you rather just improvise in the minutes you have left before total disaster?
Or follow the well established checklist of what must be done immediately and in the most efficient manner possible, which you have practiced many times before for just such an occasion?
If you know you might lose your cool after sustained losses on a given day--and who hasn't been there?-- why not have your platform lock you out for the day or have some such program in place?
You're going to trade tomorrow anyway, right?
Well maybe not if you just decide to Rambo through it.
I've leaned the hard way multiple times that emotion of any sort kills accounts.
Part of your edge, maybe the biggest part is money management.
So figure out a way to land that plane safely and be glad you walked away with a few broken bones vs the alternative.
Just my opinion!
Great question. Could be everyone waiting for the next jump to 4200 and then 4300 and beyond if, like you point out in your charts, we are still in an uptrend. Otherwise if it breaks that 4165 level I suppose we could veer back to 4100 level before either continuing back up or pulling back drastically to 3800 levels. But yes a lot of play (full days worth) in this range currently.
And I'll add a tremendous thanks for all your input. From your first response, to the chart examples, WOW. Thanks for taking the time to share all of that. It may take me a couple days to process this and get some of those levels set up on my chart. One thing I see you doing is really paying attention to volume. That is one thing I haven't been able to absorb yet. For example, when I have traded stocks in the past I feel it is a lot easier to decipher a few minutes of volume, whereas if you trade ES, there is so much volume all the time.. For example, comparing an overnight session to the morning session looks exactly the same every day to me. In your example however, I can see you looking at 1min chart and I can see from your example how you employ volume. I'll try to set mine up similar to yours.. But I've all but given up on trying to see volume on TOS because I have a hard time seeing the differences in volume structure as oppose to looking at penny stocks for example... I mean a 5 minute timespan on a penny stock of increasing volume you're like... AH, Yah,, I see it! Anyway, I'll take another stab at it.
I find it is good to look at other things like the dollar and bonds to get ready for trend changes and confirm them. The dollar is the big deal because stuff is priced in dollars. Something strange is going on with that pop in the 10 year and those daily candles on the dx look very unusual - open and close has been the same for a month. When I see strange stuff like that I trade smaller size until I figure out what is going on and it goes back to "normal": war, bond issues, goverment stuff whatever.
It may not but it feels like something significant to the market is going to happen in the next couple days. Dollar pop and es drop would make sense but I could also see it just continuing as is and bonds are just confused. I try really hard not to care about what might happen and just trade what is happening but it is fun
I actually don't care about volume much but some people it is their main thing. With es on the one minute usually a couple times a day there is a big spike and it is generally a good time to get in or out but I don't put too much faith in it. Just something to notice and I have it really dark colored so I only notice big ones. I experimented coloring the big ones like x% bigger than the last y bars average but it didn't seem to make me trade better. For several years I had volume off because it is a distraction to me: I just want to understand the current trend on multiple time frames and be with it as best as I can.
A good trader is always on the lookout for those sneaky cognitive biases. I certainly can't discount the possibility that I've just been doing it wrong this whole time. ¯\(º_o )/¯
I was following ES on the reversal this morning... As you may have gone long on the bottom? When you're using the Bollinger bands and the market is moving like this, for instance, I remember you saying you are looking at these timeframes:
On a move going up are you still working with these timeframes?
I use 3000tk and 1000tk to gauge a channel trend .. so I'm drawing channels mostly off of tick charts. But when I start looking at Bollinger bands they really do shift a lot when I'm bringing them up on a 15min vs 1000tk vs 1hr.. So I'm curious how you're looking at a bottom out like the one we witnessed today and how you would employ all three of those examples. Thanks ahead of time. Hope you're all having a great trading day.
I didn't trade today and I've been messing with those moving averages. Occasionally I will adjust them what I try to do is find what has the most touches. Generally fibonacci numbers or some fractal of time such as 60 for the 1min because that is an hour or 23 for the hourly because that is a trading day. The exact number doesn't matter to me I just want to visually see if price is going up/down/sideways (besides just looking at the highs and lows). My current numbers are 1min = 60, 1hr = 23, 1day = 20, 1week = 20 (basically cutting down the short/mid term to be quicker)
Hourly didn't make a lower low but came close.
If I was watching more closely I might have got in after this low tick and either out at the high tick or riding with a stop depending on what was going on (if I am at the screen or doing something else)
