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"I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don't bet, you can't win.
2. If you lose all your chips, you can't bet."
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Agree with this sentiment. And a rabbit hole I've been down myself.
If anyone knows of any strategies that actually work, let me know! I think mindset, money management etc are all part and parcel of it, but at the heart you need a method that is statistically proven (over a very large set of data) to have profitability.
I always tell people this. To be a successful trader, you need:
1) strategies that work
2) the discipline to trade them properly
Most people focus on #2 - things like mindset, risk management, emotional control, diversification, etc. They are all important, but without #1 combined with #2, you will eventually fail.
No, this is an illusion. You can't get a winning strategy on a course for the simple reason that everyone would be trading that same strategy within 1 week and the market inefficiency has gone.
I know of only 1 strategy that is 95% sure to be profitable: buy the index and hold it for 10+ years.
On short term, efficient markets have a lot of noise / randomness: nobody knows a more correct price than the current price, for if they did, they would trade the market and bring it to that price.
So, most traders should expect that about 50% of their trades are wrong.
And here is where the mindset comes in: if you are unwilling to admit that half the time your bet is wrong, you bet size will be too large and you will stick to losing positions that are against the market. And be forced out or chicken out of your position at the worst possible time.
My 2 cents, I am interested in the thoughts of Mr. wldman
Trading: Equities, index options and futures/futures options
Posts: 190 since Apr 2010
Thanks Given: 66
Thanks Received: 198
To become profitable as a trader you need two things. Each of which is essential for success. First you need a method that has a positive expectancy. Then that method needs to be consistently applied to the market. Finding that edge often requires an immense amount of work studying and back testing. The edge you have today may be gone next year and require finding a new one. I mostly trade options and over the years I've seen various strategies such as iron condors, broken wing butterflies and time spreads fall in and out of favor as market behavior changes. The consistency is where the psychology comes into play. Behavior that is useful in regular life can become counterproductive in markets when for example fear and greed cause abandonment of sound decision making. In what is basically a zero sum environment the vast majority of participants will end up losing money to a small group of successful players and it is very difficult to overcome that.
I think "you" as in trader becomes a lot more important when you don't have statistically proven edge. Because you are basically trading on your own judgement at that time, so yeah..
But that doesn't mean when you have one such an edge you become any less important, at the end of the day it's you who needs to trust it and put money on line.
See the issue? It's hard to put it in words which is which.
Most traders are in between, both in terms of finding edge and dealing with their own psychology. It's usually a 2 fold problem. Someone here has mentioned that being involved with sports helps, for sure, because sports is similar feild. Lot of numbers, strategies, lot of combinations and permutations but execution is also key. One can't really live without other.
So yeah, what you have read and been told is not false, it's just that scammers make clever use of it to absolve themselves of all responsibility.
JonnyBoy's reasonably definitive guide to VWAP - Part One
Introduction
There are very few worthwhile sources out there regarding VWAP. I have seen many YouTube videos and forum posts about VWAP, but none that really get down to brass tacks of …
With special thanks to @JonnyBoy for the extended description of setups.
As with (IMO) any strategy, you'll need to put time into it, lots of time
