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That is awesome! This will be my first year betting discretionary sports betting wise. I think most retail traders are fools for not learning about other gambling games.
My rules are:
My edge is that my team is the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I've noticed that I totally have an edge when I would bet against them on the spread. At that point the spread + my knowledge of the matchup gives a nice margin of error.
I'll be running a peon Bodog account, so liquidity/line shopping is not part of the game.
I don't envision more than 2 or 3 bets the whole college season, especially that as a prior I think Nebraska is underrated right now. It is a hugely EV+ thing to do though just for drilling patience into the brain under uncertainty.
To me the best advice a newb trader can get is to do everything you can to expose yourself to making decisions under uncertainty, especially with money on the line.
All my winnings I'll blow off playing heads up 5nl poker. Which to me, any trader that doesn't play heads up poker is a complete fool.
I agree. I'll be the first to admit that my FE skills leave a lot to be desired, which is something I am trying to remedy now... But I am amazed at how far rudimentary probability and statistics can get you...
I've always been fascinated with the works of Ed Thorp, and feel he had a very practical approach to things...
I focused primarily on soccer (The Champions League in particular), and did quite well. After a while I got scared by stories of big winners getting "thrown out" and having their accounts blocked etc, and I wondered if my time would be better spent in more liquid markets. Therefore I turned to finance...
I also did some work on horse betting, especially combinations like exactas and the daily double. There are not many systematic gamblers in Norway it seems, because you could find value quite often. But the liquidity is not something to rejoice over...
You have awaken my primal urges. I suddenly feel the need to get back on the saddle...
Good luck on your journey. You will be glad you made it. It is a much more relaxing existence when you let the bot execute your strategy.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
haha, that's me exactly. well i didn't have the same problems as you. but it takes disipline to place stops etc etc. and just one bad day can cost big money.
So i'm developing some auto-strategies for that reason as well.
Good for you. You will be glad you went down the AT road. So many benefits.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Hey liquidcci - just to say I agree totally with your position. I'm a software engineer with phd in signal processing and as my bias gets in the way of trading successfully, I'm moving over to full-auto.
I'd appreciate any advice while doing this ; )
I have at present 3 algos that give good returns on the S&P500. Stock indices I know a bit about. However I'd like to move to Forex. FX has a totally different personality and the strategies I use on stock indices plain don't work on FX.
I'd be more than happy to trade a bit of information / collaborate etc on developing winning algos : )
BTW I should add, earlier this year I closed and cashed out all my trading accounts (still frozen) and put cash in the bank. During this time I've been backtesting / researching algorithms. The very practice of doing this (backtest) has allowed me to see why I was failing before.
Firstly the difference between winning at trading and losing is incredibly fine. Its a knife edge - so much so that if an optimum algorithm changes its parameters only slightly, it loses. How much more so will you as a trader lose if you have a plan and fail to obey it exactly and to the letter? A winning strategy can be turned into a long term loser just by hesitation.
Secondly strategy trading has shown me you actually can't predict the future, and its all just a probabilities game. Unless you know your probability of winning/losing based on historical testing how are you going to hold your nerve when the strategy is taking a drawdown? How are you going to avoid ruin if you don't know your risk of ruin? Or don't keep accurate records? etc...
Finally I am beginning to see now what gives you an edge and starting to produce some consistently profitable strategies. Ok fine they require regular re-optimisation and there's always the danger of curve fitting, but hey its a start. Much better than seat of the pants trading which may work for 1 month, 2 months, even a year but ultimately, it will fail and when it does take your profit and more.
Discpline is key and what is more disciplined than a machine?