NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Ideal Trading Statistics


Discussion in Commodities

Updated
    1. trending_up 4,075 views
    2. thumb_up 2 thanks given
    3. group 3 followers
    1. forum 3 posts
    2. attach_file 0 attachments




 
Search this Thread
  #1 (permalink)
tradetree
Nashua New Hampshire
 
Posts: 32 since Sep 2011
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 26

I would like to find out what other traders feel is the best singular statistic for evaluating performance? There is no "right" answer here, it is partially a subjective decision. I'll start with one approach I have found to be very useful:

- Take the annual Net Profit, including a reasonable baseline commission, and divide by the draw-down. The higher the number the better the system. Here is an example:

1) Net Profit = $141,000 over 3 years = $47,000 annual Net Profit. Included $8 round-trip commission.
2) Draw-down = $12,000 historically.

Performance = 47,000 / 12,000 = 3.92. A value above 2 is a good system, so this is an exceptionally good system.

Here is my reasoning:
1) Draw-down gives the overall risk better than anything else. It is where a system had its greatest streak of losses in a row. Using Monte Carlo simulations you find that above 90% of the time 2 X draw-down is the absolute worst case. Therefore risk is directly proportional to draw-down.
2) Annual net profit averages the years of backtesting into one number. So if a system has a broad deviation over years it is spread over the average net profit. (I also always make sure there are small deviations for annual net profit year over year).

This ratio provides a good single measure for reward vs. risk of a system.


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Trump Media to sell instant access to market-moving soci …
Traders Hideout
EA
Platforms and Indicators
My Rant with AMP Futures
Trading Reviews and Vendors
RTH vs ETH: when your chart and Volume Profile trading h …
NinjaTrader
No book, only a stair: journaling fills where price move …
Cryptocurrency
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Mes vs MNQ
6 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
5 thanks
BERN ALGOS algo trading journal
3 thanks
TopStep Trader disappointment
2 thanks
Is Volume Profile worth learning or is it an outdated co …
1 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
Antisyzygy
Denver, Colorado, USA
 
Posts: 36 since Aug 2011
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 17


I tend to use Profit/Loss ratio and Risk/Reward for short term evaluation, but pretty much what you said for long term.


Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #4 (permalink)
tradetree
Nashua New Hampshire
 
Posts: 32 since Sep 2011
Thanks Given: 6
Thanks Received: 26


Antisyzygy View Post
I tend to use Profit/Loss ratio and Risk/Reward for short term evaluation, but pretty much what you said for long term.

What is interesting is how the #1 issue for traders is figuring out if they are profitable and by how much, and yet less time is spent on this consideration than you would expect. I know when I started out I looked for profitable systems to trade, either my own, a hedge fund, a CTA, or an auto-trade system. I had few metrics to judge a good system from a bad one. It was like shooting darts at a dart board. It was not until I was profitable, or rather I can say I became profitable because I understood the metrics! Once I was armed with a gauge for both my own discretionary as well as system trading, I could see the frauds from the honest sellers of systems.


Reply With Quote




Last Updated on September 9, 2011


© 2026 NexusFi®, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Downloads - Top
no new posts