Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
The issue with making blanket statements about "opening range" or other setups is that they don't take into account the fact that the market is driven by context. This point eludes most people in that they are looking for some magic setup (I get asked for setups all of the time) that they can apply under blanket circumstances. This is not how most professionals trade.
The most elusive thing you will find about learning to trade is defining and reading context. The same issue exists when learning a language. Without context, a word or a phrase makes no sense. Most books, indicators, seminars and other tools sold out there are attempting or trying to make you believe that you will have context or don't need context.
So I suggest you read the market like a book. Understand where it is coming from and what it is trying to do from the "test, move, retest" auction perspective.
Big topic and great question, but hard to get into here without narrating a book.
This always catches people. The problem is partly semantics and partly assumptions that don't necessarily line up with real life market action.
The example of the room with 199 females is a poor analogy. What is being presented is a limited data-set...which is what every person who speaks of "edge" gets wrapped in. The better analogy is a room with 199 females and one male historically but there is an open door in the back where anyone can walk in and out over time.
The possibility for the very next trade is: WIN or LOSE
We can argue this until we are blue in the face and can get some PhD's in Stats and Probabilities in here to argue one way or another. However, I'm a trader. I don't care if the edge is 62.4% or 72.8%. Those are both the same thing when it comes down to the business of doing a trade. I don't know if the next trade is a winner or a loser, so all I can do as a trader is size my position and define my risk; put the trade in the endless river of market rotations and see what it gives me with the added step that I actively manage my trades by manipulating the size of my unit.
Anyway....my website's motto is Simplicity In Trading. Keep it simple and manage risk.
Again, I think this is an issue with semantics. The intent of the webinar is an intro to establish who I am for those who don't know me and to blush over my approach. I didn't prepare nor had time to get into this subject.
The casino roulette wheel as predetermined values and they are finite. Is that so with the market? I don't think so.
Part of what I have been doing for the last year is developing some high-end automated trading programs with other traders for the public to trade. What anyone who has developed a system runs into is that the assumption that their data-set represents all possibilities is false and leads to almost immediate doubt in the program. This is because the market is just continuously reflecting the sentiment of value and all you can do is test what HAS ALREADY happened. The market is constantly reinventing itself, so we make sure that our programs are built on sound TRADING logic and not built on that particular data set for the same reason as why this roulette wheel example is invalid.
Correct. It is really that simple. The value of your stop is the amount you have at risk to find out the outcome of the very next coin toss or card drawn out of the deck.
Yes, that is my point. It is an interesting subject and I want those who want to challenge my thinking to do so. However, it can't be covered in 10 minutes at the end of a VERY long webinar (it was feature-film length and I didn't have my bucket of popcorn).
I don't believe you can call anything in trading as a "high probability setup" in a vacuum.
An edge, however, is an event in the market where if you size your position correctly and define risk correctly has a better possibility of giving you a positive outcome over time. You can skew the results tremendously through trade/risk management and that is where the focus of traders should be.
I agree that I covered too much in this webinar. Mike and I had talked about a series and my intention was to establish background and path, so that the audience can have a sense of who they are listening to. There are many talking heads out there but few have real trading experience, so I didn't want to be just another talking head.
The 4 webinars are a more in-depth look at the market from a real auction perspective. VP is not a system. It is a way of looking at the auction. It can be combined with anything else to provide a real foundation and confidence in what we see as not just random numbers.