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Hey all, does anyone have a good explanation as to why SWHC has risen about 10% over the past five days? Does this change need any explanation beyond just ordinary market flux?
As I see it:
It seems that SWHC is making a bear flag. The flag is in a well defined channel; I would look to perhaps short at the upper trendline around $9.90. A measured move for the 2nd leg down would give us a target of about $6.25. Interesting to see what happens from here.
A 2nd look at my crystal ball shows that the probable second leg down gives us a target of $5.25, and not $6.25. See if it makes to $9.90 first or not; it may just fail from here and turn down...
I was planning to short SWHC, but just found out it is not shortable by my broker Schwab (Hard to Borrow). Looked at options, but coulddn't find a strategy that I was comfortable with/that made money sense...wide spreads for one
Pre-market SWHC is up near $10 where I think probablities are higher that it will start going lower from here. A 0.50 cents stop would have been just right. See if it was a lost opportunity, or that I lucked out and didn't loose my money. I would have waited for a confirmation of my signals with price action before taking the short.
Thanks to the original poster for drawing my attention to this set-up.
SWHC looks OK so far today, is trading at 10.18 now, has higher than normal volume and an opening gap that was taken out.
I have not seen a set-up confirmation til now, closest being a 30-minute doji at 12:00 PM (not enough confirmation for me), and if it breaks the 10.24 it might just make it to the $11.25 area again....
I won't obsess over this much longer as I can't take a short anyhow.
Good luck to longs and to the shorts.
